East Renfrewshire: Tories eye up Jim Murphy’s former political base

IN normal political times East Renfrewshire would be a three-way marginal between the SNP, Labour and the Tories. The SNP took the seat from Labour at the 2015 General Election but the Tories won the similar Eastwood constituency at last year’s Holyrood poll.

Nearly 75 per cent of voters in the local authority area opted to stay in the European Union but the constituency rejected independence – a springboard, in theory, for a Labour comeback.

However, although Jim Murphy once had a lock on this largely affluent seat the Labour vote is on the slide. The party slumped to third in Eastwood last year and matched the result with a dismal showing at the local government elections after a Tory surge.

In Blair McDougall, Labour has an apparently ideal candidate. He is close to Murphy and as the former leader of Better Together has unrivalled pro-UK credentials. But the feeling in the political world is he is in line for a drubbing.

Paul Masterton, a 31-year-old solicitor who is standing for the Tories, says the contest is between him and SNP candidate Kirsten Oswald, who won the seat two years ago with a majority of 3,718.

“It’s definitely a two-horse race,” he says. “Blair’s nomination makes it more interesting for certain people in the media because he is a name they know, but he is not anybody with any kind of local profile or reputation within East Ren.”

His strategy is blunt: consolidate Tory support in middle-class strongholds but peel off Labour voters in areas such as Barrhead with a strong anti-independence message.

Masterton says the idea of Labour being in contention is “for the birds”, but acknowledges an energetic campaign by McDougall could harm him: “I certainly think there is a risk that Labour, by pretending they are in the running, could confuse people.”

What about Brexit? Given that three out of four voters in East Renfrewshire rejected leaving the EU, isn’t it a problem that the Prime Minister is pushing ahead with a policy voters dislike?

“The question of Brexit is very much secondary to the question of independence,” he says, hopefully. “There is a huge amount of anger about people’s Remain votes being twisted into a proxy vote for independence.”

Oswald, who joined the SNP in 2014, agrees with part of Masterton’s analysis. “It’s me or the Tories,” she says, on the day her team is knocking doors in the village of Busby.

Over 63 per cent of East Renfrewshire voters rejected independence in 2014. What is the view on the doorsteps about indyref2?

“It’s not something that is coming up on the doorsteps,” she says.

Is she signed up to the First Minister’s preferred timescale of another referendum within 18 months? “The FM is really clear on these things, which is really helpful to me here as well.”

Aileen Morton, a councillor, is the Liberal Democrat candidate in the contest.

McDougall, whose team starts at 7.30am and finishes at around 8pm, disputes the suggestion that East Renfrewshire is between the SNP and Tories.

“It’s telling that the Tories here never talk about the [last] Westminster result. People in East Ren have always voted differently in General Elections than from local elections and from Scottish elections,” he says.

His “sense” is the contest will “probably” be between him and the SNP, but is he really realistic about the scale of the task?.

“I need one in four Conservatives to switch back to me. I think I am getting more than that,” he says, a feat that would confound national opinion polls.

A more potent problem for McDougall is selling the Labour brand to the sizeable Jewish community in East Renfrewshire. Labour has been dogged by a lingering anti-Semitism row and the failure to expel Ken Livingstone for highly-contentious remarks about Hitler.

“It’s another reason why both myself and the SNP agree that Labour are simply not in the running in East Ren any more,” Masterton says.

Oswald says of anti-Semitism: “This is a black and white issue.”

McDougall is uncompromising on Livingstone: “I cannot understand why he was not kicked out. I welcome the fact that that is being revisited.”

Would he be happy for his leader, Jeremy Corbyn, to campaign with him in East Renfrewshire? “If you are not willing to campaign alongside him then you shouldn’t be a Labour party candidate,” he says.

Two outcomes seem possible in June. A Tory gain, or an SNP hold borne out of a split Unionist vote. The Third Way may have died when Murphy lost.