In reality, Gunners on target to fall short at end of season

WITH six wins from six in the English Premier League, Arsenal manager Unai Emery would be forgiven for getting optimistic about his team’s chances of finishing within the top four come May.

Tonight, when Arsenal host Leicester, the Gunners will have the opportunity to keep a hold of their top- four spot if they’re able to overcome Claude Puel’s side. Yet, the probability of Arsenal being one of the best four teams in England for the duration of the season isn’t nearly as obvious or likely.

At this moment in time Arsenal have the second-best goals per 90 minutes record in the division. At roughly 2.22 goals per game, Emery’s side are second only to Pep Guardiola’s side when it comes to attacking proficiency. However, when we dig in to the stats, we find that simply judging the Gunners on the goals they’ve scored is slightly misleading and inflates their real placing in the Premier League.

For example, while Arsenal have scored 19 league goals so far this season, their expected goals over that period of time stands at just 12.71. And, although these figures rarely match up from one team to the next, Arsenal’s is by far the most contrasting. In comparison, the difference between Man City’s t wo figures is just 1.02, while Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur’s figures vary by just 2.58 and 0.11. Essentially, Arsenal have been far luckier to score as many goals as they have so far this season.

This is apparent when we look at Arsenal’s other stats too. When it comes to shots per game, Arsenal sit 10th in the division. And, when it comes to how many touches they make in the opposing box per game, Emery’s side are fifth. Similarly, the Gunners are 10th in the English top flight for passes that lead to a shot and fifth when it comes to passes directly into the opposing box per game.

Arsenal are also far from the top four teams when it comes to their defensive record. Having conceded 10 goals in their opening eight games, Emery’s side currently have a goals-conceded average that has them sitting below the likes of Crystal Palace, Wolves and, crucially, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea and Tottenham.

Emery’s side are also still dogged by the same issues that limited Arsene Wenger’s success at Arsenal during his later years in charge: they stumble against the best sides. While the club may be on a six-match winning streak after beating sides like Cardiff, West Ham and Fulham, they have already shipped five goals and six points to Man City and Chelsea.

Tottenham and Liverpool only finished within last season’s top four with seven and eight points respectively between them and fifth-placed Chelsea. And, while each side did well to prove their consistency over the course of the season, a large part of that success was down to their ability to take points off of both Manchester sides as well as each other. So far Arsenal haven’t done anything to suggest they can match those performances.

Indeed, it’s these outlying factors that ultimately need to be taken in to account when assessing Arsenal’s top- four credentials. Neither Emery’s attack or defence matches the other top four sides over a number of metrics and until the Gunners can start picking up major scalps in the Premier League they’re destined to find themselves coming up short when May rolls around.