Brexit muddle needs to be tackled and tackled soon

S the First Minister and other members of the British-Irish Council attended an “extraordinary summit” in Cardiff yesterday to discuss the impact of Brexit, and the latest reliable indicators revealed the referendum decision’s negative effect on the economy, it was not difficult to detect a growing sense of crisis in the UK’s affairs.

According to IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the month since the referendum has seen a “dramatic deterioration” in the economy, with business activity slumping at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis in early 2009. The slump signals a 0.4 per cent reduction in the third quarter’s GDP, with “further pain to come in the short term at least”.

Economists directly blame the fall on Brexit, but cheerleaders for that campaign whistle insouciantly through the gathering blizzard. While respecting their referendum victory, it is surely not too much to ask that they start getting to grips with the growing gap between economic reality and patriotic pipe-dream.

There is still no sign of a plan. Europe tells Britain to go if it is going, but Prime Minister Theresa May plays for time, having discovered the notes on the back of the Brexit campaign’s envelope fall well short of the task.

Meanwhile, the British-Irish Council meets against a backdrop of speculation about a physical border being needed between the Republic of Ireland, a continuing EU member, and Northern Ireland, a part of Britain that voted to Remain in Europe. Scotland voted similarly, and Nicola Sturgeon took the opportunity to shore up support for the idea that Article 50, the formal process of leaving the EU, could not be triggered without devolved governments’ approval.

Thus Brexit becomes even more of a muddle. And while muddling through is sometimes thought a British virtue, it begins to look like fiddling while the economy goes up in smoke.