Up to 30 seats put at risk for Labour in rejig of boundaries
Tories facing fewer losses accused of gerrymandering
AS many as 30 Labour seats could be lost under plans to cut the number of Westminster constituencies, according to an analysis of the proposed changes.
The research, by Tory peer Lord Hayward, an elections expert, says some 200 Labour seats – 85 per cent of the party’s total of 230 – will be hit by the changes, which will see the number of MPs fall from 650 to 600.
In Scotland, the number of seats is due to be reduced by six to 53, meaning at least four SNP seats will be lost.
The analysis further suggests Labour will “suffer most” as a result of the proposals; leading to claims of “gerrymandering” from the official Opposition.
Moreover, the prospect of reselecting candidates for redrawn seats ahead of the 2020 General Election could also throw up more internal strife for Labour given the already heated divisions between those in the centre and on the right of the party and those on the left supporting Jeremy Corbyn.
The boundary review, set to come into effect in time for the 2020 general election, is an attempt to reduce the size of the Commons to lower costs and create seats with similar numbers of constituents.
The Boundary Commissions for Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland are due to publish their proposals for the new constituencies next month.
In the case of Scotland, which already has some of the largest constituencies in the UK, the plans could produce super-sized constituencies, covering vast swathes of land although the rules are meant to limit the size of a constituency to 13,000 square kilometres.
Ahead of the boundary commissions’ official publications, Lord Hayward’s analysis suggests that although most seats will be affected by the changes, Labour looks set to lose more MPs than the Conservatives as a result of the shake-up.
“The party that will suffer most is the Labour Party because such a high proportion of their current seats are well below the required quota, particularly in Wales, the north-east and parts of the M62 corridor,” Lord Hayward said. “This will have implications for large numbers of Labour MPs who may well have to compete against each other for reselection,” he added.
Theaimistogetthenumberof registered voters in each constituency to within five per cent of 74,769; the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and the Isle of Wight, all with much lower electorates, are excluded.
Some 43 out of Scotland’s current 59 seats fall outwith the desired range, including Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross with 47, 558 voters and Linlithgow and East Falkirk with 86,955 voters.
A higher proportion of Tory seats are currently within the range, so only between 10 and 15 of the party’s seats are expected to disappear, the analysis indicates.
Lord Hayward’s figures suggest that of the 50 seats to disappear, the Conservatives will lose between 10 to 15, which is 4.5 per cent of
‘‘ [It has] implications for large numbers of Labour MPs who may well have to compete against each other
their total but Labour is on track to lose between 25 and 30, some 13 per cent of their current representation.
Some constituencies could turn from safe Labour seats to marginal ones, while other parties, including the SNP, will also be hit. The Nationalists won 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats last year, so can expect to be hit the hardest by the review north of the border.
Labour’s work on the boundary review has been led by Dame Rosie Winterton, the chief whip, and her spokesman said the analysis was fresh evidence the policy was a “partisan” move to benefit the Tories. The Opposition urged Theresa May to abandon the plan, arguing that the imminent loss of 73 MEPs as a result of Brexit would heap extra work on MPs.
Labour also highlighted the surge in numbers on the electoral roll as a result of the EU referendum, resulting in an extra two million registered voters who were not factored in to the boundary review.