Failure on Irish border will bring down Brexit talks, Jonathan Powell warns
One of the architects of the Good Friday Agreement has warned that Theresa May’s failure to deal with problems posed by Northern Ireland’s border threatens to bring Brexit negotiations “crashing down”.
Writing exclusively for The Independent, Jonathan Powell accused the Prime Minister of committing “the worst possible sin” of having “boxed herself in”.
The ex-chief negotiator in Belfast peace talks said Ms May’s approach will create a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, laying the seed for dangerous “identity politics” that once fostered division and hatred there.
In a warning to Jeremy Corbyn, he also said Labour’s plan of “a customs union” similarly failed to negate the need for a hard border – which he said could be removed only if the UK stays fully aligned with the single market.
On Monday, the EU and UK provisionally agreed how the Brexit transition period will operate, but still failed to settle how to handle Northern Ireland’s border.
In his article for The Independent, Mr Powell argued that Ms May’s recent Mansion House speech “has not solved the substantive problems”.
He went on: “Indeed, her problems on Brexit may only just have begun and it may turn out that the insoluble problem of the Northern Ireland border is the issue that finally brings the entire negotiation crashing down.”
Ms May has promised Remain-backing Tory MPs and the Irish government that there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, while also promising Brexiteer MPs the UK will leave the EU’s customs union.
But EU negotiators say the positions are irreconcilable – that the only way to ensure no border is for the UK to remain aligned with the customs union and rules of the single market.
Mr Powell said the Prime Minister had managed to “fudge” the issue up to now, but that a negotiating strategy that saw her rule out options more than a year ago has forced her into a corner.
The chief of staff to Tony Blair from 1997 to 2007 went on: “Theresa May has therefore committed the worst possible sin a negotiator can commit. She has boxed herself in. She may hope that she can again fudge the issue, by pretending the border is soft rather than hard. But the fudge doesn’t work anymore.
“The Government will have to agree the legal text of a divorce treaty in October if we are to leave by March next year. And legal texts are not susceptible to constructive ambiguity.”
He points out that Labour’s solution of “a customs union” also does not solve the problem, given the draft withdrawal treaty sees the EU calling for calling for Northern Ireland to remain aligned not just with the customs union, but all rules of the bloc’s “internal market”.
Mr Powell began work as a British diplomat in 1979, working through tense, ill-tempered but ultimately successful negotiations that led to the return of Hong Kong to China.
He argues that the British Government’s insistence on having a free trade deal allowing it to choose areas of the single market to opt into, without taking on the obligations, is at the heart of the problem. Any trading relationship with Europe on that basis will involve a hard border, he said, and with that a potential return to troubles of the past.
He writes: “The Good Friday Agreement was all about identity. People in Northern Ireland could feel British, Irish or both because there is no visible border. Once we again block off the small back roads with huge concrete slabs to stop smuggling and put in checkpoints on the main roads we reopen the issue of identity.
“That does not mean we are automatically tipped back into the Troubles again ... but it does mean we force Northern Ireland back into identity politics.”
Mr Powell backed findings of the recent report from the Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee,
which concluded ministerial claims that a hard border could be avoided using technology were “blue sky thinking”.
He predicted a solid attempt to resolve the issue would be kicked back from this week’s European Council, something borne out by announcements on Monday.
The former diplomat now anticipates that by October Ms May will be forced to accept either a customs border in the Irish Sea, thus losing the support of DUP MPs propping up her administration, or keeping the whole UK in the single market and customs union, potentially sparking a Brexiteer rebellion.
He said: “[European Council President] Donald Tusk reiterated in Dublin that it would be ‘Ireland First’. It would be a colossal gamble for the Government to stake everything on being able to break that united front at the last moment. And if they don’t, we risk crashing out of the EU without an agreement at all.”
A UK Government spokeswoman highlighted how Britain, Ireland and the EU are “equally committed to ensuring that our departure from the EU does not lead to a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland”.
She said: “Our negotiating teams have been working together constructively on this issue since the negotiations began. In December, the UK and EU agreed a number of commitments for how we would resolve the issues relating to Northern Ireland.
“The December joint report also set out the UK’s intention to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the UK will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland while respecting the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK. If we cannot find specific solutions, then the UK will maintain full alignment with the rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, economic cooperation across the island of Ireland and the protection of the [Good Friday] Agreement.”