Tories ‘face worst-ever local election results in London’
The Conservatives are heading for their worst-ever local election results in London as younger voters desert the party, an elections expert has predicted.
The number of Tory councillors in the capital is expected to fall below the 519 seats the party held in 1994, as John Major’s government fell apart in bitter splits over Europe.
At least three London councils are expected to fall to Labour and the Liberal Democrats in May, with the Conservatives also facing a fight to cling onto the flagship town halls of Wandsworth and Westminster.
London’s fast-changing population – with a dramatic influx of younger voters, who are largely pro-Labour and pro-EU – leaves the Tories vulnerable to an historic defeat.
Nevertheless, Theresa May is expected to survive the near-meltdown, as the Tory vote holds up outside the capital – and after the boost to her standing from her tough stance against Russia over the poisoning of Sergei Skripal.
A few weeks ago, it was widely thought that the Prime Minister would face a leadership challenge if she suffered a heavy defeat in the crucial elections on 3 May. But her position has also been stabilised by progress in the Brexit negotiations, with agreement on a “large part” of the transition deal Ms May has been desperately seeking.
The continued collapse of Ukip – which scored 17 per cent when the equivalent seats were last contested, in 2014 – will also help the Tories escape a worse fate at the ballot box.
Lord Hayward, an elections analyst for pollsters ComRes and a former Tory MP, said: “I would be surprised if the Tories did not fall to an all-time low number of councillors in London.
“We are seeing an incredible demographic shift. Labour was very successful at the general election in 2017 – and I would expect that to continue in 2018,” he said. “I expect the Tories to lose seats overall, and the Lib Dems to gain seats against the Tories in some parts of the country – but I don’t expect them to lose to such an extent that it would endanger Theresa May’s prime-ministership.”
On Labour, Lord Hayward said Mr Corbyn’s huge popularity in big cities masked a poorer performance elsewhere, adding: “For a party in opposition, they should be doing far better outside London.”
And, on the ongoing turmoil in leaderless Ukip, he predicted: “I expect them to disappear almost completely and that to help the Tory party in some parts of the country.”
The Conservatives won 612 seats in London’s last elections four years ago, but are expected to lose more than 100 because of Labour’s surge.
Barnet is likely to fall to Mr Corbyn’s party, with the Lib Dems poised to seize Kingston and possibly Richmond – but Labour will also need to take Westminster or Wandsworth to declare the night a success.
With 1,060 seats currently, Labour could end up with its highest ever number of London councillors – threatening its record of 1,221, achieved in 1971.
Outside the capital, the Tories could also lose their northern flagship of Trafford, but will hope to benefit from Ukip’s collapse in the likes of Thurrock and Great Yarmouth in the east, and pockets of Staffordshire such as Cannock Chase and Newcastle-under-Lyme.
The party is likely to remain locked out of representation in Manchester and Liverpool, but could snatch a single seat in Newcastle.
The Lib Dems will hope their anti-Brexit message will reap rewards in the likes of South Cambridgeshire, which voted heavily Remain.