What’s going on in Scotland matters to the rest of the UK
The question of the union’s survival ought to be one of the most important at Westminster, writes John Rentoul
For the second time in two weeks, a Panelbase opinion poll last weekend found 54 per cent of people in Scotland support independence, excluding don’t knows. The question of whether the United Kingdom will survive ought to be one of the most important at Westminster, but so far it has prompted only the ritual exchanges of old slogans.
The Panelbase findings are not conclusive, but the trend since 2018 has been marked, from about 54 per cent the other way, and compared with 55 per cent who voted to stay as part of the UK in the referendum in 2014.
Something is happening, and not according to the obvious timetables. The Scottish National Party hoped that the UK vote to leave the EU in 2016 would be the “material change” that would change people’s minds. Instead, if anything, the cause of independence became less popular.
It was two years ago that the tide started to turn. Perhaps it was a delayed reaction. In any case, the trend was well advanced by the time the coronavirus struck, which might be seen as another cause of the rise in separatist sentiment. Not only has Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, enjoyed strong positive poll ratings for her handling of the crisis, but there seems to be an instinct that smaller nations can cope just as well or better than larger ones. This may be part of the desire, seen in all parts of the UK (and the world), for places to close themselves off from outsiders who may be carrying the virus.
Whatever the causes, if opinion polls continue to show a clear majority of Scots support independence, that creates a perpetual-motion machine to keep nationalism going. The UK government has the power to decide whether there will be another independence referendum, and Boris Johnson has made it clear that there will not be one, regardless of how well the SNP does in next year’s elections to the Scottish parliament.
But the more this goes on, the more Sturgeon can complain about London ignoring the democratic wishes of the Scottish people, which will only fuel separatism further – especially as it allows the SNP to dodge all the difficult questions about independence, to which it has no answers despite having had six years to think about them. And despite Scotland’s fiscal position having worsened since 2014; and despite the UK having left the EU, which means Scotland would have to apply to rejoin.
I personally want Scotland to stay in the UK: it is my country too, and we should all care about it, wherever we live in the UK (including in Scots-settled Northern Ireland). But that means Westminster politicians who believe in Britain have to fight for it.
Yours,
John Rentoul
Chief political commentator