‘PA will dismantle itself and Hamas can fill gap’
ACCORDING TO some analysts, it is not just the future of negotiations that hangs in the balance — it is also the future of the Palestinian Authority.
It is hard to imagine returning to the situation in which Israel is directly responsible for Palestinians, as it was before the PA was created in the mid1990s. But Palestinians are increasingly discussing this scenario.
As the talks stagnated in recent weeks, there was growing interest in the idea that the PA could be disbanded. One of the most notable advocates of this position was Tareq Abbas, the son of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who thinks his father should press the self-destruct button on the PA.
In a separate development, a research group chaired by Ramallahbased analyst Khalil Shikaki has just released a report on what it considers to be the very real possibility that the PA could cease to exist.
Dr Shikaki, head of the politically independent Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, believes that those in charge of the PA may set a date for dismantling it, and inform Israel. He believes that this could push Israel to accept certain Palestinian demands and revive negotiations, as life without the PA would pose major practical and security challenges for Israel, as well as giving Hamas a chance to up its influence. “Hamas could move in to fill the vacuum in many places,” he said.
Dr Shikaki also thinks it possible that the PA could collapse, either due to economic sanctions that the US and Israel may impose in response to unilateral Palestinian moves, or due to a grass-roots uprising against the PA.
Sam Bahour, a prominent Palestinian businessman and political commentator, said that he sees the PA as a “product of the Oslo agreement — and the agreement has expired and failed”.
He believes that it will continue to exist but will change to embrace “all forms of resistance”. He said that pressure from the Palestinian public could well cause the PA to “reshape itself” in to an “entity that is facing off with the occupation instead if negotiating with it”.
In Israel, while some follow the Palestinian discussion on the future of the PA with interest, others do so with scepticism.
“It’s mainly threatening words,” said Shaul Shay, Bar Ilan University academic and former deputy head of the Israel National Security Council. “Let’s assume that they will follow the threat; it’s to politically commit suicide.”