Poll reveals huge backing for Bibi among UK Jews
AN EXCLUSIVE poll for the JC has revealed that two thirds of British Jews who have a view on the Israeli election would vote for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Asked who they would support if they could vote in next week’s ballot, 67 per cent of those with an opinion said they would choose Mr Netanyahu’s centre-right Likud. Just 22 per cent would vote for the Zionist Union, led by Labour leader Isaac Herzog.
Although 40 per cent said they did not know who they preferred when given a straight choice between Mr Netanyahu and Mr Herzog, 41 per cent said they would choose Mr Netanyahu to continue as prime minister, as opposed to just 18 per cent who wanted Mr Herzog.
Likud and Mr Netanyahu were found to have similar levels of support among all age groups and across all areas of the UK.
No other Israeli politician or party made a significant impact with British Jews. Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid would each receive around three per cent of votes, with Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu on one per cent and Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu on 0.7 per cent.
The poll was carried out for the JC by Survation, which questioned a representative sample of 1,000 British Jews over the past week.
Patrick Briône, Survation’s director of research, said the strength of support for Likud and Mr Netanyahu “seems to reflect better name recognition than for Isaac Herzog or the Zionist Union, as support for Likud is higher among those who say they follow Israeli politics less closely than among those who say they follow it very regularly”. The poll also revealed Anglo-Jewry’s general level of interest in Israeli politics. There was an almost 50-50 split between those who followed political matters in the Jewish state and those who did not.
The level of interest extended to “quite a bit” for 32 per cent of people, and “very much” for a further 18 per cent. There was “not very much” of a following among 36 per cent and no interest at all for 14 per cent.
On the whole, British Jewish men were more interested in Israeli politics than women. The full results are at www.thejc.com
Opinion polls in Israel this week suggested the Zionist Union was narrowly ahead of Likud.
FOR THE first time in six years, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership seems to be under serious threat.
The latest polls have consistently shown the Zionist Union list, headed by Labour Party leader Isaac Herzog, a few seats ahead of Mr Netanyahu’s Likud.
As things stand now, on the morning after election day, next Wednesday, both party leaders will have a tough time forming a coalition.
The last month of campaigning has seen a steady erosion in Likud’s strength, caused partly by a series of revelations and scandals regarding Mr Netanyahu’s wife and alleged public funding of his household, but in the m a i n b y th e success- ful focus of his rivals on cost-of-living issues, particularly the housing crisis. In the polls last weekend, it seemed that Mr Netanyahu had succeeded in stemming the decline and, in the wake of his speech to the US Congress on the Iranian threat, Likud once again closed the gap with Zionist Union. But by midweek, polls had the party back down to only 21 Knesset seats, trailing Zionist Union by three or four seats.
While this is good news for Mr Herzog, there are still major obstacles facing him. None of the polls gave the four parties that are resolutely opposed to another Netanyahu government — Zionist Union, Meretz, Yesh Atid and the Arab Joint List — a blocking majority. Together, they have at most 56 seats, still leaving the possibility of Mr Netanyahu forming a coalition with the right, the religious parties, and the socialaffairs orientated party led by former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon. In nearly every scenario, Mr Kahlon is the kingmaker who holds the keys to the prime minister’s office. He remains opaque as to his preference and will stay that way until after the votes are in. One Likud official who knows him well said that, “Kahlon will have t o decide what is stronger. His dislike of Netanyahu, or his hope to come back to the Likud and lead the party one day. If he helps Herzog form a government, the party will never forgive him.”
Mr Herzog’s greatest headache, however, is Yesh Atid, the secularistcentrist party led by Yair Lapid, which is likely to be the third largest party in the next Knesset with 12-14 seats.
In order to form a coali-tion, Mr Herzog would need Mr Lapid’s seats but al s o t hose of the Charedi parties, who have sworn not to sit in a cabinet with Yesh Atid.
On Tuesday, Shas leader Arye Deri said that he was open to joining a Herzog government. “I said I would recommend Netanyahu but if the president gives the mandate to Herzog, I certainly am not ruling him out.” But regarding Yesh Atid, he said the chance of Shas joining a government with them was “close to zero”.
Ultimately, the dilemma could fall to President Reuven Rivlin as both Mr Netanyahu and Mr Herzog are likely to announce victory as the results arrive in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Mr Rivlin has already said that he will not necessarily give the mandate to form a government to the leader of the largest party, but to the candidate with the best chance of commanding a majority in the new Knesset. In 2009, L i kud re c e i v e d one seat less than Tzipi Livni’s Kadima but Mr Netanyahu went on to form the government.
However, even if the right-wingr el i g i o u s bl o c turns out to be larger on paper, Mr Netanyahu will have trouble claiming a mandate from the public for a fourth term if the gap is four seats or wider.
Mr Netanyahu is fully aware that this is a battle for his political future. To close the gap with Zionist Union, he is trying to attract right-wing voters away from Likud’s “satellite” parties, Jewish Home and Shas.
“It is a very close fight, nothing is assured,” he told party activists on Monday. He added: “There is a massive effort, crossing the globe, to topple the Likud.” He has three more days to convince Israelis that this threat is real and he is the man to stand up to it.