How Putin became a go-to ‘peacemaker’
NO DATE has yet been set for a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Moscow and, even if it does take place, it is unlikely to yield a diplomatic breakthrough.
Despite this, unusually positive noises are emanating from both Jerusalem and Ramallah regarding the possibility of such a meeting.
The last public sit-down between the Israeli and Palestinian leaders was six years ago, although there have been unconfirmed reports of secret meetings, a few telephone calls and, last year at the Paris climate summit, they shook hands.
It has been two and a half years since the breakdown of the most recent round of talks, and the reasons for the ongoing impasse have not Filling a US-sized vacuum: Putin changed. Mr Abbas is still standing by the Palestinians’ demands for a settlement freeze and the release of prisoners before they resume talks — and Mr Netanyahu is not in a position to agree to such demands with his current coalition’s complexion.
With the Obama administration focused on other matters and on its way out, there is no significant international pressure on either leader to make any progress. But while any serious diplomatic engagement seems highly unlikely at this point — even a recent attempt by European diplomats to broker a meeting foundered over disagreements on the necessity of a preparatory meeting — both leaders seem amenable to meeting under Russian and Egyptian auspices. There are multiple reasons for this. For a start, both leaders are interested in at least creating an impression of diplomatic engagement to satisfy demands of the international community. They are also aware that while both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian Presi
dent Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will see hosting such a meeting as a diplomatic coup, they will not be as insistent as US or European brokers in pushing them to make concessions.
A meeting will also help both leaders boost security co-operation, which Israel and the PA both desire to continue to ensure calm and prevent the return of Hamas to the West Bank.
Over the last year, Mr Netanyahu has intensified his relationships with both Russian and Egyptian presidents, and the militaries of all three countries have worked closely fighting Daesh in Sinai and coordinating operations in Syria.
While the Israeli leader has little desire to award any diplomatic prizes to President Barack Obama in the last months of his presidency, Presidents Putin and El-Sisi are here to stay.
Mr Abbas, meanwhile, needs Egyptian goodwill and shares with the Cairo regime a deep antipathy towards Hamas. In addition, he has always been at home in Moscow, where he studied and wrote his doctorate. In a period of decreasing American involvement in the Middle East, IsraeliPalestinian summits may not lead to a peace agreement but are useful opportunities for maintaining crucial relationships.