Hamas rivalry will shape its tactics
THE ASSASSINATION on Saturday morning of a Palestinian engineer based in Kuala Lumpur, with links to Hamas, has highlighted the way that the militant Palestinian movement is trying to diversify its operations. Fadi al-Batash is believed to have been working on improving the accuracy of Hamas’ rockets and at the same time may have been organising student supporters of the movement in Malaysia.
It is almost certain that Al-Batash was working for the network headed by Maher Salah, Hamas’s overseas operations chief who is close to the movement’s new deputy political chief, Saleh al-Arouri.
Their operations are now hampered by the fact that the movement no longer has a permanent “political office” outside Gaza. In the past it was situated in Damascus but closed down following a difference of views between Hamas and the Assad regime. It relocated to Qatar, which has now closed it down and Al-Arouri worked from Istanbul. Hamas leaders are still welcome in Turkey but as part of the reconciliation agreement between Ankara and Jerusalem have had to lower their profile.
Another development affecting Hamas is the internal rivalry between Al-Arouri and Hamas’ new leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar. Both are hardliners who spent prolonged periods in Israeli prisons and are now vying for leadership of the entire movement and in the future see themselves as candidates to replace Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Sinwar has changed tactics in Gaza and has ordered Hamas’ military wing not to provoke another round of warfare with Israel. He spearheaded the unsuccessful attempts to broker a reconciliation deal with President Abbas’ Fatah, in the hope that would end Gaza’s isolation. He decided to both endorse and take over the protest marches to Gaza’s border over the last four weeks, with a similar aim.
Meanwhile under Al-Arouri, outside Gaza, Hamas is trying to build up an effective network capable of carrying out attacks against Israeli targets and working on weapons research. Hamas is concerned that Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system has rendered their large arsenal of rockets in Gaza obsolete, which is why they are trying to upgrade them.
Al-Arouri favours re-engaging with Iran (with which Hamas fell out over the Syrian war) and looking for ways to set up a “second front” against Israel. One is arming Palestinian groups in Lebanon with rockets to threaten Israel’s northern towns, in coordination with Hezbollah.
Sinwar, who is prioritising his control over Gaza, prefers to rebuild Hamas’ relationship with Egypt, which controls the Rafah Crossing. To this purpose he is less interested in another escalation with Israel now and is pushing the marches to the fence as an alternative. The nature of the next round of warfare between Israel and Hamas could largely be decided by the outcome of this rivalry.