Israel plays a waiting game as Netanyahu clings to power
THIS HAS been a topsyturvy year for Israel, with highs and lows in just about every field. On the security front, the first few months of Israel’s year in 2018 were unusually calm, but there were bursts of dramatic escalation in Gaza as the warmer months arrived.
The economy continued to grow with record low unemployment figures and, for the first time, a “double A” credit rating from Standard & Poor’s; but, by December, there was news of planned price rises.
In terms of diplomacy, things seemed to be going well: record numbers of foreign leaders visiting and even the first trip by an Israeli prime minister to the Gulf in over two decades, when Benjamin Netanyahu popped up in Oman.
But there were ominous warnings from the International Criminal Court of possible indictments of Israel over Gaza and the West Bank.
It was a mixed bag for human rights as well. Pressure by nongovernmental organisations and the media forced the government to abandon its controversial plan to deport tens of thousands of African migrants to an indeterminate “third country”. But the Knesset also passed the Nation State law that marginalised Israel’s non-Jewish minorities.
In all, it was a year of waiting and no pivotal events. Despite the frequent outbreaks of violence on the Gaza border and an increasing number of attacks in the West Bank, relations with the Palestinians held. There was no third intifada: the Palestinian Authority is still sticking to its security co-ordination with Israel and, even with Hamas, a ceasefire of sorts has been achieved.
But neither was there any diplomatic breakthrough — or even a hint of one. Everyone is still waiting with very low expectations for the Donald Trump peace plan, if it ever sees the light of day.
A similar dynamic has played out on Israel’s northern border. There were air strikes against Iranian targets in Syria and underground operations against the Hezbollah tunnels from Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran launched a drone into Israeli air-space and a missile attack on Israeli positions on the Golan Heights. But none of these events triggered the big conflagration everyone appears to be waiting for: Israel has been largely successful in reining in Iran’s presence across the border, even though the Iranians are still active there.
At home, it was a year of political stagnation in which the Netanyahu government seemed several times to be on the brink of falling. Ultimately, however, the coalition saw the year out, albeit reduced to the smallest of majorities.
This year ended with a date set for the election, after months of speculation: Tuesday, April 9, 2019. It is a contest that all polls have so far suggested Mr Netanyahu will win.
But a fifth election victory may not be enough to safeguard him against potential indictments for corruption. Because, above all, this was the year of waiting for Avichai Mandelblit, the attorney general.
Since February, when the police first recommended indicting the Prime Minister for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, the files have been waiting for Mr Mandelblit to pass judgment.
His decision will almost certainly signal when the Prime Minister leaves the political stage. It did not happen in 2018, but the meticulous Mr Mandelblit must decide in 2019.
Everyone is waiting for the Trump peace plan