CAN HE DO IT? BERNIE’S CONTEST
SENATOR BERNIE Sanders’s heart attack earlier this month was an unfortunate metaphor for a presidential campaign that already appeared somewhat in failing health.
In this week’s debate among the key contenders for the Democratic party nomination, Mr Sanders needed to show that — despite being the oldest candidate in the race — he has lost none of his old vigour and energy as he returns to the campaign trail.
He passed that test with flying colours, with the Washington Post’s senior political writer, Aaron Blake, suggesting that the senator had in fact appeared “more lively than he has been at any previous one”.
Mr Sanders sometimes comes over as humourless and crotchety, but this time had a more witty and relaxed demeanour. At one stage, he announced his support for legalising medical marijuana, before swiftly adding: “I’m not on it tonight.”
The Jewish senator parried inevitable questions about his age and stamina for the gruelling campaign — “I’m healthy, I’m feeling great” — and instead passionately defended his signature policy of radically shaking-up healthcare in America.
But he also needed to reclaim his place as the favourite of the party’s left-wing grassroots activists and address long-standing doubts among Democrats that he can beat Donald Trump in next November’s general election. On these questions, the jury is still out.
Mr Sanders has had an uncomfortable summer. For months, he comfortably maintained his position in the polls as the principal alternative to the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden. But, in June, fellow left-wing populist Elizabeth Warren began a surge. Last month, she decisively broke past him. Ms Warren is now pulling ahead of Mr Biden in some polls.
In a sign that he won’t give way without a fight, the senator will appear at a rally this weekend to be endorsed by the darling of left-wing Democrats, New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She worked on his campaign in 2016 and her support is a blow to Ms Warren.
Mr Sanders also won the backing this week of two other members of the so-called “Squad” of left-wing congresswomen: Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, who have been involved in a series of controversies about allegedly antisemitic remarks.
With less than four months to go until the primary season begins with the Iowa caucuses, Mr Sanders is struggling in key early-voting states.
Iowa was the state where he upended the 2016 race by fighting Hillary Clinton to a virtual draw, but this time around he has lost ground even to Pete Buttigieg, the young mayor of South Bend, Indiana, threatening to push him into fourth place. He is also far behind Ms Warren and Mr Biden in New Hampshire. Only in Nevada does Mr Sanders still appear to be a credible contender for the top spot.
The senator’s difficulties reflect both the growing tide of support for Ms Warren and a perception that he is unelectable. The ability to defeat the President, polls say, is the key attribute sought by Democrat primary voters. In the minds of many, the selfproclaimed democratic socialist is simply too left-wing to make it to the White House.
In an effort to address these fears, Mr Sanders last month barnstormed through Iowa on what his campaign called the “Bernie Beats Trump” tour. It was designed to show his appeal in rural and conservative parts of one of the key mid-western states which helped Mr Trump defeat Ms Clinton three years ago.
The polls don’t necessarily support the notion that Mr Sanders is unelectable. A Quinnipiac University survey last week, for instance, showed him defeating Mr Trump by seven points, one point less than Ms Warren’s margin of victory and two points less than Mr Biden’s.
Mr Sanders says his anti-establishment message will drive up turnout and encourage disaffected non-voters to come to the polls. His supporters also point to his fundraising strength: figures last week revealed that he pulled in $25.3 million (£19.8 million) in the third quarter of the year — more than his party rivals.
But electability is hardly a scientific concept. Polls continue to show that Mr Biden outranks both of his leftwing rivals as the candidate Democrats believe is most likely to beat the President.
For so long as that remains the case, Mr Sanders will face an uphill struggle to win the nomination.