A convenient excuse to halt fresh elections
V ISRAEL AND the Palestinians could find themselves holding election campaigns simultaneously in early 2020.
But unlike Israel, which will hold its third Knesset elections in less than a year, Palestinians will be voting for the first time in 14 years. While Fatah, which rules the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank from Ramallah, and Hamas in Gaza have agreed in principle on holding the election next year, a number of obstacles remain.
The last presidential election, in which Mahmoud Abbas succeeded Yasser Arafat, was in 2005. The next year, Hamas won 74 out of the 132 seats in the parliamentary election for the Palestinian Legislative Council — but the PLC has barely functioned since because of a bloody coup that saw Hamas seize Gaza in 2007.
Since then, Mr Abbas has promised numerous times to hold elections to renew his mandate and form a new parliament, but the two sides have been incapable of agreeing how and when to hold them.
This time, there are clearer signs that the election may happen, including a number of meetings in Gaza between Hanna Nasser, the head of the Palestinian Authority’s election commission, and Hamas’s leadership.
So far, it has been reported that Hamas has agreed one key concession: to split the PLC election from the presidential one and hold them three months apart. Hamas had originally insisted they be held on the same day to ensure Mr Abbas either resigns or puts himself up for re-election.
The change in stance is related to Hamas’s fears that Fatah would either hold the election in the West Bank only, or that Mr Abbas would simply resign to let another Fatah leader establish himself in power.
There has also been pressure from Egyptian mediators, who have been trying for years to broker reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
Last week, it emerged that the Palestinian Authority had privately asked the Israeli government to allow voting to take place in East Jerusalem. This was a bone of contention in the previous election and under pressure from the United States, Israel agreed that the voting could take place there in Israeli-run post offices, rather than Palestinian polling stations.
It is unclear if a similar compromise can be reached this time, especially as the Netanyahu government, itself facing an election, would not want to be seen as making concessions to Palestinians on Israel’s sovereignty in Jerusalem. Since the Palestinians have cut off all diplomatic relations with the US, there is no prospect of American pressure this time around. The Palestinians may try to work through the Egyptians, though they are unlikely to be as insistent.
The crisis with Washington creates another problem: funding. Elections are not cheap to organise, and in the past the Americans have funded Palestinian elections. That will not be happening this time either.
The unlikelihood of Israel agreeing, at least not before its own election on March 2, to a vote in east Jerusalem has given rise to speculation that Fatah, and Hamas too, are eager for yet another excuse to postpone.
Mr Abbas, at 84, knows his chances of winning are slim, especially as the Fatah vote is likely to be split between him and his rivals within the movement, Muhammad Dahlan and the imprisoned Marwan Barghouti. Rather than leave the stage, he has an interest in postponing them.
Hamas chief Yihya Sinwar is eager to stake his claim as the next leader of the Palestinian people, but is not yet powerful enough within Hamas to make himself the candidate.
Israeli intransigence would be useful for all sides.