Bibi to win primary, but by how much?
IRRESPECTIVE OF the result of this week’s Likud leadership election on December 26, Benjamin Netanyahu will remain prime minister for the next three months. Israel is facing another general election and a new prime minister can only be appointed once the next Knesset is elected.
Mr Netanyahu is the clear favourite to win but the challenge from former minister Gideon Saar, the only other candidate, weakens his position because Mr Saar’s claim that the prime minister is no longer capable of forming a government is cutting through.
Anything less than a landslide in the contest, scheduled to take place after the JC went to press, will further damage Mr Netanyahu’s standing.
A large majority of Likud’s 29 Knesset members, not including the two candidates, endorsed Mr Netanyahu. Mr Saar received the support of five MKs — four of them notable as members of the younger generation of Likudniks aligned with the relatively more moderate and secular wing of the party. A fifth supporter (who did not immediately endorse
Mr Saar publicly but is known to be working on his behalf) is Haim Katz, the influential chairman of the party’s central committee.
Mr Katz was secretary-general of the large Israel Aerospace Industries workers union and is still powerful there. Thousands of the union’s members are also Likud members and they are expected to give Mr Saar a significant boost.
Even this small group of MKs openly supporting a different candidate is bad news for Mr Netanyahu. Worse, two of the most popular figures in the party, Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein and Internal Security Minister Gilad Erdan, have been on the fence in what is interpreted as a no-confidence vote in the party leader.
The race is seen by many in the party as a confrontation between Likud’s different regions, with the members living in the middle class neighbourhoods and suburbs around Tel Aviv leaning towards Mr Saar, and the prime minister deriving most of his support from the party’s strongholds in the Negev and up north.
The Saar camp has complained that Mr Netanyahu is using his control of the party apparatus to shift the results in his favour. In recent weeks, thousands of members discovered they may not be allowed to vote due to “irregularities” in their membership fee payments.
In addition, there was a row over whether members could vote at any of the polling centres around the country, as was the case in previous Likud primaries, or only where they live — as the Netanyahu camp, whose supporters are less likely to work far from their homes, prefers.
While the polling was sketchy, the expectation in both camps is that Mr Netanyahu has a clear lead and is expected to win.
But since a national election is taking place in two and a half months and the political deadlock may continue after it, the margin is highly important. Both sides were talking of a 30 per cent baseline for Mr Saar. If he passes it, preventing a landslide, it would be a sign of Mr Netanyahu’s weakness and make it easier for members of his party and coalition to push him aside after the election.
It would also position Mr Saar as the frontrunner in the next Likud leadership race after Mr Netanyahu’s eventual departure.
Both sides talked of a 30 per cent baseline for Gideon Saar’