No Soleimani reprisals for now, Israel predicts
Iranian commander helped bolster multiple hostile forces on Israel’s borders
THE ISRAELI intelligence community has reached the conclusion that the chances of there being repercussions from Qassem Soleimani’s assassination spilling over into the confrontation between Israel and Iran are slim at present.
In a number of assessments carried out over the past week, Israel’s leaders and security chiefs have debated how best to react to the dramatic developments in Iraq and decided the best way was to maintain a low profile.
Immediately following news of the US drone strike near Baghdad Airport that killed the Iranian warlord, the IDF heightened the alert status of its units on Israel’s borders with Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. But it did not deploy extra forces or its Iron Dome batteries.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was attending a summit with the leaders of Greece and Cyprus in Athens, decided to cut his trip short and return to Israel. Before taking off, he kept his remarks short, saying only that, “just as Israel has the right of self-defence, the United States has exactly the same right.” Cabinet ministers were ordered not to give interviews on the assassination.
On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu was much more direct with his remarks, saying at a conference in Jerusalem that “anyone who tries
Benjamin Netanyahu flew back early from a summit in Athens
to attack us will suffer the most devastating blow.”
In the five days between those statements, despite some belligerent rhetoric from a Revolutionary Guards general who said that “35 US targets in the region, as well as Tel Aviv, are within our reach”, Israel’s Iran-watchers reached the conclusion it was highly unlikely that Iran would respond to the assassination by attacking Israel.
Its view was that Tehran’s initial retaliation would take place using its own forces, not one of the proxies operating on Israel’s borders such as Hezbollah or Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
That conclusion was bolstered on Tuesday night when the Iranians launched missiles at two bases in Iraq where US troops are stationed, sending advance warning and taking obvious care not to actually harm them.
Over the past few months, there has been increasing concern in Israel’s security establishment that Iran could be planning a missile strike against Israel similar to the one it carried out against Saudi oil installations back in September. This would have been in retaliation to Israeli airstrikes on the Iranian bases in Syria and Iraq.
A senior Israeli officer said recently that, “while Israel has succeeded in preventing Iran’s plan for a major military buildup in Syria, they have still managed to increase the number of missiles aimed at Israel in Lebanon and Iraq, and are planning the same now in Yemen.”
Raz Zimmt, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a veteran Iran-watcher, said this week that, “there is not necessarily a direct link between the confrontation between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf and the confrontation between Israel and Iran in the north. If matters between the US and Iran escalate to full-out war, then they could certainly spill over to Israel, but that doesn’t seem to be the case now.”
Israel’s long-term intelligence assessment is that the arsenal held by Hezbollah — of around 150,000 missiles of different ranges — was supplied by Iran to threaten Israel with retribution if it was to attack Iran’s nuclear installations. That is Tehran’s chief worry from Israel and it is unlikely to risk a wider escalation with Israel and jeopardise this strategic asset.
At the same time, time officers warn that the Iranian vengeance will continue to simmer for years and future retribution for Soleimani’s killing could come at any unexpected time or place — including a target on Israeli assets.
Targets including Tel Aviv are within our reach’