Could Iowa be Sanders’ springboard?
BERNIE SANDERS’ near-miss win in the Iowa caucuses four years ago signalled the start of an unexpectedly long, closely fought and, for Hillary Clinton, ultimately destructive battle for the Democratic party’s presidential nomination.
But when Democrats in the midwestern state meet next week to select their choice to take on Donald Trump in November, Mr Sanders will be hoping for better than a close second.
Iowa traditionally kicks off the primary season and in each of the past six election cycles, the Democrats’ victor has gone on to eventually claim the nomination.
The polls suggest that Mr Sanders has closed the gap on the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden, having staged a remarkable recovery since last autumn when he was briefly pushed into third place by fellow left-winger Senator Elizabeth Warren. Some recent polls have even showed Mr Sanders narrowly leading the crowded pack.
If he can pull off a win in Iowa, Mr Sanders will be in pole position for the New Hampshire primary, which follows a week later. In the so-called “Granite state”, too, the Vermont senator has hauled himself back into contention: trailing in fourth place at the end of November, he’s now leading Mr Biden by five points, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average.
Nationally, the polls have the former vice-president still ahead, but Mr Sanders firmly in second place and apparently climbing.
Mr Sanders’ comeback has come despite, or because of, some highly aggressive campaigning. The senator has claimed Mr Biden has a “lot of baggage” and a “weak” record and accused him of wanting to cut pensions (a claim New York Times columnist Paul Krugman termed “almost Trumpian”). Mr Sanders was also forced to apologise for an op-ed by one high-profile supporter which said Mr Biden had a “big corruption problem” and to issue a call for his supporters on social media – the notorious “Bernie Bros” – to dial down the venom with which they attack the senator’s Democratic rivals.
Mr Sanders also appears to have weathered the storm over Mrs Warren’s claim that he had told her a woman could not beat Mr Trump. Once friends and allies, the two clashed in the last Democratic debate before Iowa votes, with Mrs Warren refusing to shake his hand. The highly public spat left liberal groups – who have long wanted the two to cooperate against more moderate candidates such as Mr Biden and former mayor Pete Buttigieg – aghast.
Victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Dan Pfeiffer, a former adviser to Barack Obama, claimed last month, could see Mr Sanders “build a real head of steam” as the contest moves to “Super Tuesday” — the multi-state primary — on 3 March. Mr Sanders has learned from his failure to overtake Mrs Clinton four years ago and has been courting minority voters. The strategy appears to be paying dividends. In heavily Latino, delegate-rich California Mr Sanders is now in a statistical draw with Mr Biden.
Nor will he soon run out of money. In early January, the Sanders campaign revealed figures showing he had raised significantly more cash for his campaign in the final quarter of the year than any of his rivals.
Mr Sanders’ war chest will, however, pale into insignificance against that of Michael Bloomberg. The billionaire former New York mayor is sitting out the early primaries but already spending huge amounts on television ads — many of them targeting Mr Trump — for when he joins the fight on Super Tuesday. Polls show him steadily rising and he could receive a boost if Mr Biden stumbles in the early contests.
And Mr Sanders’ apparent surge has also led moderates to begin attacking him. Last weekend, Mr Bloomberg accused his fellow Jewish contender of wanting to “turn America into a kibbutz”, while Mr Buttigieg’s campaign warned that nominating the selfdeclared democratic socialist was “a risk we can’t take”.
If wins in Iowa and New Hampshire provide Mr Sanders’ with vital momentum, the issue of his electability — with questions ranging from his age to his radical record — will dominate the debate. On this, the polls are inconclusive, with recent match-ups suggesting Mr Sanders would fare only marginally worse against the president than Mr Biden.
But, as with so much else, Mr Trump may have upended such calculations. As the Washington Post’s Paul Waldman recently commented: “We don’t know how any of this will factor in a general election. There hasn’t been a nominee like Sanders in modern history, nor has there been a president like Trump for a nominee like Sanders to run against.”
Mr Trump may have upended such calculations’