Trump cools over annexation as Bibi keeps Israel in the dark
THE PROPOSED annexation of parts of the West Bank is beginning to look a lot like the old joke about the Swiss Jew who emigrated to Israel and opened up the first ski shop in Tel Aviv. A month after his arrival, he wrote back to his parents in Zurich, “I have yet to sell a pair of skis but thank God, I already have competition here.”
Just like the joke, the Israeli government has yet to set out a map or a timetable for the annexation which, according to the coalition agreement, can begin to be legislated from July 1. There are already multiple versions of what annexation may look like.
For weeks, sources close to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu continued to stress that he was adamant on pushing through on July 1 the annexation of all thirty percent of the West Bank – the settlements and a wide strip of land in the Jordan Valley — which are envisaged in the Trump plan as being part of Israel in the future.
Mr Netanyahu has not publicly changed his position but a variety of different versions are already emerging from senior circles in the Likud, with two weeks still to go. In an interview on Monday, Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen said the annexation would take place later in the year, probably in
August or September, due to differences in the coalition. On Tuesday, Likud whip Miki Zohar quoted the prime minister as saying the annexation would go ahead and there would be no mention of a Palestinian state.
However this is different to Mr Netanyahu’s previous commitments to support the Trump plan in full, which includes negotiations for establishing a future Palestinian state on 70 percent of the West Bank and in Gaza.
Then on Wednesday the daily freesheet Israel Hayom, which routinely serves as a mouthpiece for Mr Netanyahu, reported that he was considering a two-stage annexation, beginning with the smaller settlements deep inside the West Bank, following which Israel would propose talks with the Palestinian Authority, and after those inevitably failed (if they ever happened), annexing the rest of the proposed territory.
In addition there at least two proposals, complete with maps, being bandied about in recent days by different groups of settlers, who are anxious that the Trump plan could leave some of the more isolated settlements in tiny enclaves, where they could not build and expand.
Mr Netanyahu’s problem with carrying out annexation is that he has to satisfy three very different groups to make it work. There is his right-wing base, some of whom, particularly the hardcore of the settler leadership, are fiercely opposed to any steps which could be construed as opening the path for a future Palestinian state, even on terms which the Palestinians are extremely unlikely to accept.
Then there are his new coalition partners, Defence Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, who are opposed to pushing annexation forward unilaterally, and agree with the IDF and Shin Bet that it would likely cause an outbreak of violence. And of course, he needs to get the final approval of the Trump administration before implementation.
The administration is not talking in one voice either. In fact, in recent weeks senior U.S. officials have avoided commenting on annexation altogether. For now, the one who is most involved in preparations is Ambassador David Friedman, who as a former fundraiser for settlements is very much in favour of annexation and is pushing to go ahead before the US presidential election in November. Mr Friedman has even sat in on meetings between Mr Netanyahu and the senior Blue and White ministers, Mr Gantz and foreign minister Gabi Ashkenazi, where they tried and failed to reach a joint position on annexation.
Meanwhile, in Washington diplomats have detected a distinct cooling over the issue, as the Trump administration deals with much more pressing issues such as Covid-19, the wave of Black Lives Matter protests and Mr Trump’s plummeting poll ratings. The main person in charge of dealing with all of these is presidential special advisor and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who is also the main author of the Trump peace plan. Earlier in the year, when the plan was first presented at the White House, it was Mr Kushner who first slammed the brakes on immediate annexation. He seems no more eager now to go ahead in the near future.
When he originally told the Israelis to put annexation on hold, Mr Kushner had three main reasons. First, Israel was still to go through another election and such a move could only be carried out by an elected government. Second, a joint US-Israel commission would first have to prepare a map of the territory to be annexed. Third, he would need to square possible opposition to the move from America’s Arab allies. In the six months that have passed since, a new government has finally been formed in Jerusalem but it is far from united on annexation. The mapping commission has yet to finalise its work. And the Arab allies are increasingly vocal against annexation.
Last Friday, in an unprecedented move, the UAE ambassador to the US published in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronot a direct appeal to Israelis in which he implored them that “annexation will certainly and immediately upend Israeli aspirations for improved security, economic and cultural ties with the Arab world and with UAE.” While the ambassador’s words, translated into Hebrew, were ostensibly aimed at the Israeli public, their real destination may have been Mr Kushner.
Whether any version of annexation is implemented at any point in the coming months will almost certainly be decided in Washington.
Annexation will almost certainly be decided in Washington’