Is Israel heading for elections?
On Wednesday afternoon, the prime ministerial convoy, instead of driving straight up the road to the office, turned right at the interchange on Ben Zvi Boulevard and headed for Agripas Street, stopping outside a popular steakhouse.
It was the most transparent of political gestures as Benjamin Netanyahu stepped out for a very brief moment to cheers from shoppers and passers-by. The adjacent Mahane Yehuda market is a mythological Likud stronghold and a perennial stop on the election trail.
But was Mr Netanyahu trying so hard to make it look as if he was about to go for yet another election because he wasn’t actually sure?
Back in the Knesset, the committee which was supposed to prepare the law postponing the deadline for passing the state budget broke up in recriminations, as Likud’s coalition partners accused it of having added new conditions. MK Tzvi Hauser, who had proposed the compromise legislation, threw his arms up in the air: “There are five more days! Madmen, get off the roof!”
Politics remains on a knife edge. The law mandates that elections must be called if the government fails to pass the budget by Monday night. Mr Netanyahu has in principle given up his demand to pass an immediate budget which will cover only 2020 but he has now added conditions before he agrees to a law which will give the government another three months to pass a budget covering 2021.
Among those conditions are immediate finance for pet projects and the education system of his political allies, the ultra-Orthodox parties, more influence for Likud in the appointment of senior legal officials and an agreement by Blue and White that if the High Court rules that Mr Netanyahu can no longer serve as prime minister once his trial moves in to the intensive evidentiary stage in
January, elections will be called.
Blue and White are convinced that his demands are just an attempt to portray them as responsible for Israel holding a fourth election and that Mr Netanyahu has already decided to hold a fourth election in twenty months. He still hopes to win enough Knesset seats to pass legislation that will shield him from the ongoing trial for bribery and fraud. A November election is his last hope. As it is, senior Likud MKs are no longer even trying to hide their lack of intention to follow through with the “rotation” agreement they signed, whereby Blue and White leader Benny Gantz will replace Mr Netanyahu as prime minister in November 2021. Noone believes the government will last that long anyway.
But even as yet another election seems inevitable, some Likud insiders are counselling caution. It is true that Blue and White has been decimated in the polls and the right has gained support. But that has gone to Yamina, the right-wing party lead by Naftali Bennett. “Bibi doesn’t trust Bennett,” says one Likudnik. “He’ll be wary of going in to an election with Bennett doing so well.”
In addition, there is the prospect of holding an election after what many expect to be a chaotic return to school under the Likud-controlled Education Ministry and during what by November may be a third wave of coronavirus. There seems little doubt Mr Netanyahu wants an early election — but he may not be prepared yet to take the risk.
There seems little doubt Bibi wants an early election’