Nagorno-Karabach fighting prompts unlikely israeli-turkish cooperation
INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS in the Middle East and Europe failed to notice the mysterious goings on at Israel’s Uvda airforce base, near Eilat, last Thursday. Aze rb aija ni cargo aircraft landing there are a regular occurrence, as the former Soviet republic on the Caspian Sea is a major customer of Israel’s weapons industries. But the delivery flights are usually carried out at regular intervals by commercial Boeing 747 freighters. In this case, it was two military Ilyushin cargo jets, arriving one after each other.
Three days later, hostilities broke out between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces around Nagorno-Karabach, an enclave within Azerbaijan populated by ethnic Ar men i ans which both countries claim and have fought over repeatedly since they gained independence from the Soviet Union thirty years ago.
Israel kept silent as it has diplomatic relations with both sides and, as one official said, “we have interests on both sides.”
There is also the not minor issue of Russia, which leans more towards Armenia, and Israel does not want to anger the Russians.
But as the Azerbaijani forces continued to advance and win territory, leading to speculation that the country may be trying to take advantage of the global pandemic distraction to try to occupy the enclave once and for all, its own officials were less reticent. One advisor to President Ilham Aliyev even gave an interview to the Israeli media in which he boasted about their use of Israeli drones, sending a “chapeau to the designers.”
War in the Caucasus makes for strange bedfellows. While Israel is not trumpeting its own involvement, Azerbaijan’s closest ally, Turkey, is.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime is anxious to show it has influence across Eurasia and is vocally supporting Azerbaijan’s claims. Armenia, which has its own bitter historic account with Turkey, has claimed that the support also includes Turkish fighter-jets, drones and even Syrian mercenaries under Ankara’s control.
This raises the intriguing possibility of quiet Israeli-Turkish cooperation.
On the face of it, relations between the two countries could hardly be worse. Under President Erdogan, Ankara has lowered the level of its diplomatic relations with Israel and Turkey is now hosting a significant Hamas office in Istanbul, from where both financial and military operations are directed.
The Turks have also been at the forefront of condemnation of the“normalisation” between Israel and the United
Arab Emirates and Bahrain. But as one Israeli intelligence officer said this week, “it’s all about Iran.”
Despite overtures between the two major non-Arab regional powers, Turkey and Iran remain wary of each other. Iran is also Armenia’s main patron.
Azerbaijan, is the only country which can currently bring Israel and Turkey together.
For Israel it is a major customer, not only of arms but of high-tech goods, while Israel buys most of its oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspian fields.
It helps that Azerbaijan, while being a Shia-Muslim nation, is resolutely secular and offers Israeli intelligence a convenient “backdoor” to the Islamic Republic.
Few Israeli officials expect relations with Turkey to improve while Mr Erdogan remains leader but, at the same time, they hope that the once key strategic alliance can be restored in the post-Erdogan era.
The fighting in Nagorno-Karabach is a tragedy for local civilians but for Israel and Turkey it is a useful venue to quietly maintain the old connections.
RAISES THE INTRIGUING POSSIBILITY OF ISRAELI-TURKISH COOPERATION’