America’s latest revolution: the moderates take power
YOU NEVER need look far for signs of End Times in America. It’s not just the unravelling of civil society or the crumbling of the institutions or even the Protestant faith. Finality is part of what makes all Americans American.
Only the people of the US see themselves, as Abraham Lincoln said shortly before he was shot, as “the last, best hope of Earth”.
In the last two decades, the rest of the world has lost its faith in America, as have many Americans. They elected two anti-establishment presidents whose appeal lay in their lack of political experience: first Obama, then Trump. Neither managed to legislate effectively, though the paralysis of Congress predated both.
Now President Biden is tanking in the polls, with a 38 per cent approval rating. His numbers have fallen faster than any modern president in his first year. Kamala Harris’s numbers are underwater: the vice-president has a 28 per cent approval rating.
The public thinks that the Democrats have mishandled every challenge. The administration is doing so badly that it is keeping alive the prospect of the political apocalypse: Donald Trump running again in 2024.
That’s bad news for Republicans. They know that Trump can win the primary but lose the election on the centre ground, and drag them down with him. The good news is this: voters are moving to that centre. The Republican who last week won the governship of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, isn’t a Trumpist, but is Trump-ish on the economy and on keeping Critical Race Theory out of the schools. The Democrat elected governor in New Jersey (though there might be a recount), Phil Murphy, is an old-school moderate, and he too campaigned to make the American economy work for the middle class.
It’s likely the midterms in next year will be a referendum on Biden’s handling of the economy. Yes, the election will be enlivened by a culture-war sideshow on left-wing overreach in schools, but still we might just be able to expect a return of the dull but necessary disputes that democratic elections are supposed to be about.
Liberal commentators declared American democracy dead when Trump won in 2016. Even foreign leaders, particularly in Europe, joined in.
But Americans aren’t stupid. They are, in fact, much smarter than the Europeans in some ways. Americans are flexible and adaptable. When the economy went under in 2008 and Europe turned nativist, the US leapt forward with Obama. They leapt forward again with Trump, like him or not. The Biden administration is a freak interregnum. The recent elections show that the huge US middle class is on the move again. It wants to get back to work and remains essentially moderate.
The leaderships of both parties are backing away from fringe fanatics. Last week, as Harris denounced antisemitism at the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) conference, the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas saw would-be Republican nominees affirming their support for Israel and their concern for Jewish Americans.
Yes, this is the same Harris who a few weeks ago commended an antisemitic student for speaking her truth. Yes, the ADL these days is a kind of press office for the Democrats.
Still, it’s better than recent years, when both parties have turned a blind eye to antisemitism. The Democratic left is still winking at it to hold together its coalition, but it looks like the apocalypse might be deferred. Call me an optimist, but I think we’ll soon see a return to ordinary madness.