Twists and turns on the road to a general election
POLITICS in the UK has never been more divided and confusing than ever before. Since 2019 and the winter election that saw Boris win a majority there has been a multitude of political rows, mistakes and a swing of changing fortunes from a crushing defeat of Labour to being almost 20 points behind Keir Starmer’s party today.
Three by-elections took place over the pat few weeks with varying degrees of results for parties other than the Conservatives. We saw Reform UK produce two very good results in Kingswood and Wellingborough. Both Reform candidates are former colleagues of mine in Brussels. Rupert Lowe achieved just over 10% of the vote and Ben Habib in Wellingborough managed over 13%. These are strong indicators that the more Conservatively minded voter is more likely to switch to Reform in the current political climate.
The question is, was it a firm vote that can carry into the next election and beyond or was it a protest against the leadership and a rejection of Labour from the same type of voter? Only time can tell.
Rochdale helps to prove that point, with Reform losing its deposit and coming sixth in a heavily working class town with historic links to Labour.
Their failure to proper assess their candidate selection will be the big question hanging over Labour, they cannot afford to throw away opportunities and traditional safe seats so close to a General Election.
George Galloway’s election victory reaffirms his pedigree for electoral strategy and successes. I don’t think it was healthy to turn a northern working class by-election into a referendum on Gaza, particularly as Galloway can do pretty much nothing about it. I predict he will lose his seat to Labour in the months ahead, having achieved nothing for Rochdale residents.
The questions these results raise don’t make it any easier for voters to decide how to vote. Labour lacks actual policy statements, preferring to keep quiet and maintain their poll lead, Conservatives have pretty much run out of road to improve their prospects and the Lib Dems will focus on seats they can get out the vote. Where does this leave Reform UK and the Green Party?
I have long been an advocate that first past the post requires constituency campaigning over a long period of time, focusing hard on local issues and keeping national campaigning to a relative minimum in order to make small, but significant gains.
Reform and the Greens would benefit hugely if they put the vast majority of their resources and manpower into specific and scientifically chosen target seats and merely put paper candidates elsewhere. I have no doubt there are some within each of those parties who will advocate for the same, the temptation to add more seats and try gimmicks to get column inches will be counter-productive and there needs to be a significant level of self-restraint and not go down that rabbit-hole.
We pretty much already can see the next election being a foregone conclusion, barring any major scandal. I would like to predict that the mid-terms in 2026 may see the emergence of a stronger and more organised opposition party other than those in Westminster today. It may be bold to predict such, but with self-restraint, organisation, patience and proper electoral planning, it is possible. Just stop the gimmicky politics, it doesn’t work, it never has and it never will.
In other news; I was, like many of you saddened to hear of the death of Dave Myers. I always enjoyed the Hairy Bikers’ style and approach to food that brought to our attention their love of cuisine. Dave Myers represented that kind of decent, witty and kind person that appears to be increasingly rare these days. Rest in Peace