We need to forge closer ties with the European Union

ARECENT report by Goldman Sachs has estimated the Brexit damage to the UK economy as a 5.5% reduction of the gross domestic product (GDP).

The analysis is based on a comparison between the UK and a “doppelgänger”, that is a mix of countries that had performed like the UK before Brexit. In this type of analysis, it’s difficult to be sure about the precise size of the GDP loss.

However, Goldman Sachs estimate of a 5.5% reduction in economic growth seems to be about right as both the Office for Budget Responsibility (4% reduction) and the researcher John Springford (5.2% reduction) have come to similar conclusions.

Nevertheless, Brexit damage to the economy should have not been the main argument brought forward by David Cameron in the 2016 referendum as pointed out by Rory Stewart, a former Tory politician.

In his memoir book, Politics on the Edge, Stewart explains why he disagreed with Cameron in relation to both the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 and the subsequent EU membership referendum.

During the first referendum Cameron focused on scaring the Scots with the economic consequences of independence, rather than emphasizing why Scotland and the rest of the UK are stronger together. According to Stewart it felt like as if somebody threatened with a divorce responded by saying “If you leave me, you will be poorer,” rather than saying “I love you”.

Cameron repeated the same mistake in the EU referendum, and lost the vote by a narrow margin. Stewart would have campaigned on the unfavourable consequences of Brexit for farmers and on the fact that environmental problems, like pollution and climate change, benefit from collaboration with other European countries.

In an article for the Telegraph in June 2016, Boris Johnson wrote that “British people will still be able to go and work in the EU, to live, to travel, to study, to buy homes and settle down”. This is not what has happened with Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal: British citizens have lost the previous unrestricted

right to travel, work, study, settle and marry in any EU country.

The loss of freedom of movement within the EU has particularly affected young Britons and has not reduced overall migration to the UK.

Since leaving the EU, we have been desperate to sign free trade deals with other countries but the trade deals with Australia and New Zealand will damage our farmers, whereas both the trade deals with Australia and the Pacific Trade Agreement are not good for climate change.

Conversely, the EU is introducing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism that penalises imports from countries with less stringent climate policies. This is a bold initiative aimed at reducing unfair competition and encouraging cleaner industrial production. Being part of a large bloc like the EU gives more leverage in relation to trade policies. The Liberal Democrats have promised more convergence with EU policies by ensuring that net zero commitments are at the forefront of any international trade agreement.

One of the greatest threats we are facing is the possible re-election of Donald Trump as US President. Donald Trump is a climate change denier who has previously hampered the fight against climate change. He has also refused to criticise Putin and has paused US help to Ukraine that is critical to stall the Russian aggression. Trump’s policies could lead to a collapse of Ukraine and to large numbers of Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum.

Trump extremism is not just a threat to democracy in US. During his previous term as president, Trump had strained relations with NATO allies to the point that the survival of NATO appeared to be under threat. Just a few weeks ago Trump made some vile remarks saying that he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies not falling into line with his expectations.

If Trump is re-elected, the EU may have a greater role in ensuring cohesion between European allies and in promoting the Western values of democracy. Following Trump’s statement, European leaders have called for greater unity and military cooperation. Keir Starmer has said Labour may seek a new security pact with the EU if it wins the next election.