Going so soon? Tories heading toward the exit
THE recent announcement by former Prime Minister Theresa May to step down at the next election is a significant one.
Added with the decisions of Robert Halfon and James Heappey to step aside as ministers and away from the House at the next election is showing a growing trend.
According to most observers about 20% of Conservative MPs are not standing for re-election, this is a high number and it points to the possibility that many of those are stepping aside to avoid a ‘Portillo’ moment; leaving before the electorate tell them to go.
Recent polling indicates a terrible night for the Conservatives when they do call the election and that such polling isn’t showing signs of better news for the Tory Party.
In previous articles I have pointed out the various reasons for this huge drop in support and the potential loss of ‘red wall’ seats as well as the threat from the Lib Dems in the South and South West of England. This ‘squeeze’ of votes puts the Conservatives on a damage limitation footing to avoid the humiliation of losing too many seats and even try to avoid a repeat of the 1997 General Election that saw just 165 seats returned and 13 years in the wilderness.
Much of the focus will be on improving the economic outlook for individuals and families, and rightly too, but I don’t think there’s enough time to claw back some support and indeed there isn’t enough time to see whether their policies in Government will be judged to have worked or not.
I suspect that the election will be in the autumn, perhaps October. It gives enough time for campaign planning during Parliamentary recess and using conference season to outline their election messages. There really won’t be other opportunities than that. But I could be wrong and Sunak may hold on until January next year, though unlikely.
ON an entirely different note, Newcastle’s stunning victory over West Ham on Saturday has the feeling it may be a turning point for what has been a (not entirely unexpected) tough season for the Magpies.
With the spending rules limiting player purchases and the longer term plans to build a new stadium to improve revenue alongside squad injuries, it is no surprise that we have struggled this season.
I know there will be a die-hard section of fans who won’t want to see the end of St James’ Park, but in order to be able to afford players who can challenge for major honours, the annual revenue has to come from somewhere to stay within spending rules and avoid the kind of punishments received by both Everton and Nottingham Forest.
Tottenham Hotspur hugely increased their revenue by improving their stadium and expanding their portfolio of revenue streams, that surely must be high on anyone’s agenda to see Newcastle United able to begin building a squad ready to win.
Patience will be the watchword, but in the meantime I’m confident things are being done right to build a strong future for Newcastle.