POOL OF DEATH? NO IT’S REALLY A POOL OF... opportunity
ENGLAND might find themselves in the dreaded Pool of Death but I prefer to call it the Pool of Opportunity. Being drawn against Wales, Australia and Fiji will prove a stroke of good fortune for England.
There’s no denying Pool A is the toughest group in World Cup history with those four of the top nine teams in the world going head to head.
And, in passing, you can only feel sympathy for minnows Uruguay who are in for an extremely tough and character-testing three weeks.
If this was an away World Cup I would be slightly anxious... but it’s not and the reality is that this pool works on so many levels for England.
No side in the world will look forward to running out at a packed Twickenham to play England and this draw keeps us away from the sides I would prefer not to meet early in the tournament.
That would be a very well prepared New Zealand, who I make tournament favourites, a South Africa team that has the Indian sign over England at present, a French team that is beginning to impress and, finally, the Pumas who can be plain awkward and difficult to beat.
What England have instead are a Wales team who they play every year and who they beat well in Cardiff i n February, and an Australia side who they invariably dominate up front one way or another.
We shouldn’t dismiss a fast improving Fiji side either but there is a tried-and-tested formula for beating the Fijians and if England stick strictly to that there will be no opening-day dramas.
The match schedule works out perfectly for England as well. They have to get revved up and hit the ground running against Fiji but I can see only one result on Friday and that will tee them up nicely for Wales and Australia.
Then, if England win all three, and I believe they will although we might not have many nails left, they will then have the luxury of giving everybody who hasn’t played until that point a start against Uruguay.
That is manna from heaven for a coach looking to give everybody game time in case they are needed down the line.
Those two matches against Wales and Australia, and indeed Wales’ clash with Australia, are in my opinion the biggest games in World Cup history, bar none.
The ramifications for the nation that doesn’t qualify could be massive. Those at the top could lose their jobs, key players could retire or be dropped, fans might get disheartened and sponsors could get twitchy.
The entire game could lose profile in that particular nation compared with other big sports. That’s very real pressure.
But if a battle-hardened England can get to the quarter-finals the tournament could open up supremely well. They would be likely to face Scotland or Samoa and even if Scotland sprung a surprise — and as you will see elsewhere on this page I am not ruling out that prospect — a home quarter-final against South Africa would be an ideal opportunity to break England’s losing sequence against them.
We are getting into deeply hypothetical territory now but England could well then face Ireland in the semi-finals. The main point however is that England wouldn’t be playing New Zealand until the final. The experienced All Blacks team under Steve Hansen are as close to bankers for the final as you can have in the World Cup but they are not unbeatable and the perfect time for England to meet them would be in the final when they could be at the most vulnerable. That’s me doing my long-term prognosis and I’m sure you have all been doing the same at home but in the camp England must be totally focused on Fiji.
There is nobody who loves and appreciates running rugby more than me, but England know exactly what they have to do against the Fijians.
It might not be spectacular, in fact it could be a bit boring, but England must go to work up front.
They must out-scrummage, out-maul and out-ruck Fiji, dominate the line-outs, play the game in the Fijians half, kick their goals, slot over the occasional drop goal, build a winning score and ram home the advantage in the final quarter when their superior fitness will tell.
England need to distance themselves from the excitement and adrenalin of the opening game and do an ultra-professional job of work.
Do that and the Pool of Death will open up for them and provide the ideal springboard to great things.