How to crush IS
BECAUSE Islamic State is weaker in Iraq, I would suggest that international and indigenous troops try to defeat it there before taking the fight to within Syria.
So far, the Kurds have done well and a push towards IS’s Iraq stronghold of Mosul cannot be too far off. The Kurds’ efforts on the ground will be critical.
We should also include the antiIS vigilante groups around Mosul. Most importantly, we must persuade the local Sunni tribes to switch sides. Without their support, IS are stuffed – they’ve had it. It will take a lot of negotiation and money – that is the reality of this part of the world.
While Special Forces should play a key role, regular British infantry should stay out of this fight; after the Iraq War there is too much baggage involved. The fact that IS is apparently relocating commanders to Mosul from the Syrian city of Raqqa to escape bombardment would suggest that the RAF and other air forces can step up their aerial campaign.
The challenge in Syria is of course more complicated. Though President Assad is a butcherous dictator who barrelbombs his own people, we must negotiate with him and involve his military personnel. A military solution also requires Russian and Iranian involvement.
The potential for civilian casualties is great and deeply concerning. But this must not be used as a reason for us not destroying IS. Sadly, we’ve flapped around and left it to the US, the French and the Russians to fight the aerial campaign. It is militarily nonsensical not to bomb IS in Syria when we’re doing it in Iraq.
David Cameron must also play a leading role in the negotiations in Vienna. Thought must be given to what Syria is going to look like after the war. Eventually, Assad has to go, but not yet.
In the meantime, we should confront states such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey which have financed IS and bought its oil supplies on the black market.