OK, the REAL competition starts now...
FOR England, Euro 2016 is about to start. I don’t mean we can ignore everything that has happened so far. It was disappointing to lose control of the group and end up in the tougher half of the draw.
But I am still optimistic about England. We haven’t seen the best of them yet. And they may yet prove very good.
In fact, I would go so far as to group England with the three favourites France, Germany and Spain — all, of course, now in the same half of the draw.
These are major football nations but we haven’t seen the best of them yet. In patches we have seen some good things. But none of them have cut loose.
The format of the competition, with so many sides looking to defend deep and eke out points to come third in their groups, means this has a different feel to previous European Championships.
But the games are about to open up, although maybe not in this round of 16 and certainly not in Iceland’s game against England. There is one more match of playing against a deeply defensive side with six, eight or nine players banked up in defence.
England have to solve that conundrum. But I believe they will. And come the quarter-finals, as it should be, England are likely to be playing a team with attacking aspirations.
Of course, then we will also see the real weakness of this side, their defensive capabilities, tested in a way they haven’t been. And it may be that England aren’t good enough. But we will also see more of England’s attacking ability.
Jamie Vardy will suddenly have spaces in which to run; Harry Kane will get a chance; Daniel Sturridge can make an impact from the bench.
England have played well. They haven’t taken their chances, but they have dominated games. That may be because the opposition has been weaker than normal at a major championship, but this is not a team playing badly.
It is different to the tournaments in 2014, 2012 and 2010. England have played at pace and with attacking impetus. The exception was the first half against Wales, when they looked leggy, though that could be blamed on a poor pitch.
Assuming they can beat Iceland — and they ought to — once they come up against the best sides, you don’t feel they will inevitably lose. They have enough quality to stretch most teams. I don’t think anyone felt that at Euro 2012.
This is a very open tournament. England have some good players, though no-one truly expects them to win. Denmark did in 1992 and Greece did in 2004.
Twelve years on from that we have another open tournament and England should hold on to that thought. I’m not saying they’re going to win it; I’m saying that having reached the knockout stage, these players should be aiming at that.
But, of course, the improvement needs to come. I believe it will.
Iceland are a very unusual international team in that, under Lars Lagerback, they play football with which we were familiar in England in the 1980s. It’s 4-4-2 with a heavy reliance on set-pieces and long throws, though don’t forget they beat Holland twice in qualifying.
And though Leicester and Atletico Madrid have taught us that possession isn’t everything in football, it is unusual to go through game after game with 60 per cent of possession, as England will, and not score goals.
Eventually, that kind of posses- sion brings results. I believe it will tomorrow in Nice.
There have been really good early chances in all England’s games — Adam Lallana against Russia, Raheem Sterling against Wales and Vardy against Slovakia — which should have been taken. Finishing is a game within the game and we’ve fallen short.
If England had scored an early goal in any of their opening three matches, the whole dynamic would have been different. But rather than focus on the missed chances, I would say the improvement needs to come in midfield.
When teams are banking up with four, five or six defenders helped by deep-lying midfielders, it’s down to the creative play of your midfielders to break that down.
You have to find a way to get round the back of that defence, even though there is so little space. Once you are round the back, then the strikers are in business.
England haven’t worked hard enough in midfield to do that. The responsibility will lie with Wayne Rooney and Dele Alli against Iceland tomorrow. And though Rooney has been an asset in midfield, he needs to get those driving runs into the box going.
Lallana, Rooney and Alli have to open the door with a quick pass — Rooney did that against Russia — or get in the box themselves.
At the moment our biggest attacking outlet has been our quick full-backs going one on one with their defenders. Which is fine, but against better teams that won’t be as easy to do.
I haven’t even seen an overlap down the wings yet, so we can’t just rely on our full-backs.
Iceland’s centre-halves, Ragnar Sigurdsson and Kari Arnason, aren’t going to worry too much about heading crosses away.
Arnason has played in the Championship and League One. He knows all about that. What is difficult to defend against is quick, intricate movement.
My team? I would play a diamond formation with Rooney behind Vardy and Kane, with Lallana and Alli in midfield and Eric Dier holding. And, of course, bringing back the full-backs, Kyle Walker and Danny Rose.
I expect England to win 2-0 or 3-0. And I hope it will be the start of their tournament proper.