May would ‘wipe out’ Corbyn in snap poll – with 100-seat majority

LABOUR would be wiped out if Jeremy Corbyn is re-elected as leader because Theresa May would immediately call a snap General Election, a senior party figure warns today.

Michael Dugher MP, a political adviser to Gordon Brown when he ‘bottled’ calling an early Election as Prime Minister, predicts that Mrs May would win a 100seat majority if she went to the country in the autumn.

‘Labour could be looking at decades in the political wilderness,’ the Barnsley East MP writes in today’s Mail on Sunday. ‘I think she’ll be persuaded to seize the chance to go to the country sooner rather than later – maybe as early as October – if Jeremy Corbyn is still leader’.

Mr Dugher’s intervention comes at the end of another turbulent week for the main Opposition party, with moderate MPs in despair at polls suggesting that Mr Corbyn is on course to defeat his rival Owen Smith in September’s contest.

With more than three-quarters of MPs opposed to their leader, the anti-Corbyn block predicts that many will simply give up on their political careers and resign their seats if he wins – triggering a spate of by-elections. In other developments:

A Mail on Sunday investigation discloses today that T-shirts being sold by the hard-Left Momentum group which props up his leadership are being made by workers in Bangladesh on just 30p an hour;

An undercover operation by this newspaper uncovered links between Momentum and an extremist Islamic organisation and exposes the underhand methods it deploys to target anti-Corbyn Labour MPs;

Mr Smith worked as a lobbyist for the drugs giant Pfizer when it launched legal action to keep the cost of life-saving drugs artificially high in the developing world;

MP Seema Malhotra complained to Speaker John Bercow that allies of Mr Corbyn had gained unauthorised entry to her room in violation of her ‘privacy, security and confidentiality’.

The turmoil has been accompanied by complaints from critics of Mr Corbyn that they have been subjected to intimidation and abuse by the hard Left. A total of 44 women Labour MPs have signed a letter to Mr Cor- byn complaining about his ‘inadequate’ response to the attacks.

‘Rape threats, death threats, smashed cars and bricks through windows are disgusting and totally unacceptable in any situation,’ they wrote.

Mr Corbyn yesterday urged his supporters to remain ‘disciplined’ during the contest.

Speaking at the launch of his campaign to retain the party leadership in Manchester, Mr Corbyn said: ‘As I have made it very, very clear many times before, I don’t do any personal abuse of anybody at any time.

‘None of that has any place in our party or our movement… where we have disagreement in our party we settle it through democratic means – no coups, no intimidation, no abuse.’

GORDON BROWN’S failure to call an early General Election back in 2007, when he was riding high after a buoyant start to his premiership, was arguably the biggest political blunder in living memory. The same dilemma faces new PM Theresa May.

With a Commons majority of just 12 MPs, May’s brutal reshuffle – when she culled the ministerial allies of David Cameron and crushed the ambitions of other Tory ‘modernisers’ – has increased her fragility when it comes to potential backbench rebellions.

And despite her stealing Ed Miliband’s talk of a Britain that doesn’t just work for ‘a privileged few’, the reality is that she has assembled a Cabinet made up of Right-wing has-beens, antiEuropean headbangers and Norman Tebbit groupies.

However, as things stand, I’m convinced she won’t make the same mistake as Brown.

So far, May says she has ruled out going to the polls before the 2020 date set under the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

But I think she’ll be persuaded to seize the chance to go to the country sooner rather than later – maybe as early as October – if Jeremy Corbyn is still Labour leader after the September contest.

If that happens I fear we could see the Tories get a majority of a 100 seats. Indeed, Labour could be looking at decades in the political wilderness, which would be a disaster for Labour areas like mine in Barnsley.

I was Gordon Brown’s chief political spokesman before 2010 but back in 2007, I was working at No12 Downing Street in the Government Whips’ Office.

I remember talking to my friend Tom Watson – now Labour’s deputy leader – who was convinced there would be an early Election in 2007.

Brown asked the whips to ring round Labour MPs to get their thoughts. I recall one senior Labour MP being against an autumn Election on the dubious grounds that his large majority might be trimmed.

Brown was given conflicting advice from his inner circle in September 2007 and eventually ruled out a snap poll. Looking back, it was Brown’s and Labour’s best shot and we blew it.

Some people say May is too cautious to call an Election. It’s true that she is in many ways a modern-day equivalent of Stanley Baldwin, the Tory leader in the inter-war years who, with his slogan ‘safety first’, was a hero of John Major’s. In the turbulent 1920s, the mantra stood the Tory Party in good stead.

But the riskier move would be not to call an Election. Brexit means political and economic uncertainty.

And May, like Brown, would be permanently branded both an ‘unelected’ Prime Minister and a ‘bottler’.

The clincher is that, as long as Corbyn remains Labour leader, May is like a gambler with a big pile of chips after a winning run at the casino table – and every instinct will be telling her to cash out while her luck is in.

One recent YouGov poll has support for Labour at just 29 per cent. At the same point in Ed Miliband’s leadership, the same pollster had Labour riding high on 44 per cent.

An Ipsos MORI poll this week found just 23 per cent thought Corbyn had what it takes to be PM, compared to 55 per cent who were backing May.

Other polls have shown that large numbers of people who voted Labour at the 2015 General Election would now prefer May, and say they can’t vote for a party led by Corbyn.

Of course, if Labour does make a change at the top and elect Owen Smith as our new leader, the party could unite. And that just might make Theresa May ‘do a Gordon Brown’ and put off an early Election.

Labour’s fate is in our own hands.