Guess who’s set to be Labour’s REAL leader?
(Clue: It definitely won’t be Corbyn)
SPECULATION is mounting that Jeremy Corbyn may be about to face a new leadership challenge. ‘It all depends on the by-elections,’ a Labour MP told me last week. ‘If we lose both of them, then you could see people starting to move.’
Others say the key test will be the local and mayoral elections in the summer. ‘If the Tories upset us somewhere like Birmingham, that could be the tipping point,’ said another MP.
Such Westminster intrigue is fascinating. But it’s also outdated. Because the election that will determine the fate of Labour has already begun.
On Friday, nominations closed in the battle to become general secretary of Unite, and leader of its 1.3 million members. It will be a straight fight between the incumbent, Len McCluskey, and Gerard Coyne, a moderate who heads the union’s West Midlands region.
It will also be a fight to the death. Because the two men are not actually contesting the leadership of a single trade union. Instead, they are engaged in a war over what one Shadow Minister calls ‘the shadow leadership of the Labour Party’.
Corbyn long ago ceased to be the leader of his party in any practical sense. Control has been effectively ceded to McCluskey and his allies on the Left. And one in particular – former Unison official Karie Murphy.
It is the McCluskey/Murphy power axis that rules Labour. It began with McCluskey’s support for Murphy’s candidacy in Falkirk, the selection that created the crisis which forced Ed Miliband to change the Labour leadership rules and led directly to Corbyn’s election.
After that election, Murphy managed to get herself appointed – with McCluskey’s blessing – as the executive director of Corbyn’s office.
And now, as many of Corbyn’s former allies begin to desert him, it is Murphy and McCluskey who stand as the final bulwark against any potential leadership challenge. The strength of this new political nexus first revealed itself during last summer’s failed leadership challenge.
There was a moment when it appeared Corbyn might resign. But then Murphy and McCluskey began to mobilise. Murphy refused to let Shadow Ministers see Corbyn, and stopped passing on messages. ‘She placed herself between him and the Parliamentary Labour Party,’ said one Minister. ‘She was almost physically protecting him.’
Simultaneously, McCluskey began to derail efforts by Labour deputy leader Tom Watson to broker a managed departure.
Since then, Murphy and McCluskey’s control has solidified. Those who clashed with Murphy – such as Corbyn’s campaigns chief Simon Fletcher, who resigned last week – have found themselves eased out. Others – like Corbyn’s political secretary, the former MP Katie Clark – have simply been bypassed.
‘Katie and Karie weren’t getting on. So Len sent someone else from Unite to be her deputy. Now they just work around her,’ a Shadow Minister told me. At the heart of this is Unite’s enormous financial and organisational muscle. Secondees from the union help bolster Corbyn’s leadership team.
‘This means they’re effectively serving two masters,’ said one MP. ‘They’re Unite employees with Unite pensions, but they also work for Corbyn.’
BUT that arrangement can only continue so long as McCluskey’s leadership of the union is secure. Aware of this, Coyne has placed ending ‘Westminster power games’ at the heart of his campaign. That, in turn, has seen the Corbyn machine organising in defence of McCluskey.
Last week, members of Momentum, the Corbynite activist group, were informed the organisation was backing McCluskey. ‘It is a straight Right v Left election and Len has been a firm supporter of Jeremy and the project,’ they were told in a newsletter. ‘It will be a serious blow to Corbyn/Momentum if we lose this election.’
That’s a very big ‘if’. Coyne is trailing badly in terms of nominations. But some believe McCluskey is vulnerable, pointing to Corbyn’s stances on Trident and nuclear power, which have angered Unite workers in those sectors.
Corbyn has attempted to mitigate some of his policy positions in response. Recent moves to adopt a tougher stance on immigration were motivated in part by an attempt to help McCluskey, who had called for restrictions on EU nationals. This led to a clash between Diane Abbott and Murphy, which, according to one senior Shadow Cabinet member, saw Abbott accusing Corbyn of ‘betraying black children’.
All of which underlines Murphy’s importance to Corbyn. ‘Jeremy hates confrontation,’ a Shadow Minister said. ‘So Karie has to do it for him. She’s always stepping into the breach.’
She will need to step up again as the battle over the leadership of the UK’s largest union intensifies. Indeed, it has now become a proxy war for the soul of Labour. If McCluskey holds on, he and Murphy will be able to maintain the force-field they have constructed around Jeremy Corbyn. But if Coyne prevails, then Corbyn is vulnerable. The next Labour leadership election is already under way.