Kamikaze Brexit
Brace yourselves! Leadsom and her ultras have been handed the controls and we’re zooming towards a . . .
Stubborn May has sealed her fate – and ours
JUST 24 hours after the murderous attack launched against them, Britain’s MPs delivered the perfect response. Not through the formal statements by the Prime Minister and other members – measured and moving though they were – but in the session on international trade that preceded it.
Could the Minister give a commitment our embassies would assist in showcasing great British beers around the world, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked. Oh yes, he could promise to take a close personal interest, he responded. The assembled members laughed. And as they did so they collectively raised two fingers to the men of terror.
This week, the House of Commons will steel itself, then return to business. And not just any business, but the issue that will define Britain’s destiny for the rest of this century – the triggering of Article 50.
There will be little fanfare. No banners will flutter or trumpets blare as we cross our Rubicon. Instead, a letter will be delivered to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, followed by a simple address by Theresa May to Parliament.
An understated – some might say quintessentially British – way of marking the end of 44 years of union.
It has been described by some – me included – as a great leap in the dark. But we have been deluding ourselves. A leap in the dark at least holds out the hope of a soft landing. And as things stand, we are heading, eyes wide open, for the jagged rocks.
Those who campaigned for Brexit have been proved right about many things. They accurately judged the mood of the nation. They correctly identified how claims by the Remain camp of an instant economic implosion were hyperbolic. They have successfully outflanked the numerous attempts by opponents to delay and disrupt the timetable for withdrawal.
Actually, they have been actively assisted by those opponents. Since Brexit, the Remain campaign have become a rabble. Their numerous rebellions have been routed. Their demands have become con- fused and contradictory. Do they respect the judgment of the British people, or do they think the public have been duped? Is single-market membership the political priority, or is it reflecting the public’s clear repudiation of free movement?
So yes, the Brexiteers have skilfully milked their triumph of June 2016. But now they, and the rest of us, are about to collide with reality.
It’s entirely conceivable that a ‘ soft Brexit’, in which Britain maintains many of our existing EU trading and regulatory relationships, could be made to work. It’s even possible that, with a bit of luck and skilful negotiation, a ‘hard Brexit’, involving a much looser trading framework, could also be sustainable.
But when Article 50 is triggered on Wednesday, it will propel us not towards a soft Brexit or a hard Brexit, but a Kamikaze Brexit.
There is no model of Brexit – not hard, not soft, not manly but tender Brexit – that can be constructed without some compromise between the UK and our European partners. It is a prerequisite for the sort of clean and orderly withdrawal that business and the financial markets require.
But the architects of Brexit will not countenance such a compromise. For them, that equals betrayal. Indeed, the thought of compromise was what drove them with such ferocity towards Brexit in the first place. When Mrs May says ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ she doesn’t mean a word of it. She is fully aware of the impact of crashing out of the EU straight to World Trade Organisation terms. It’s just a bargaining position – and a perfectly legitimate one.
But to the Brexit ultras on her backbenches, it’s not a negotiating stance but an article of faith. To them, no deal is not better than a bad deal, it is the deal. It is the best way – the only way – to fully and finally satiate their anti-European lust. Via the sweet, sensuous taste of pure Brexit.
OBVIOUSLY not all Brexit supporters take such a fundamentalist view. But enough do. Mrs May has a majority of 14. Less than a year ago, 84 of her backbenchers voted for Andrea Leadsom to be Prime Minister. The same people who wanted Ms Leadsom to have her finger on the nuclear button now enjoy an effective veto over the Brexit negotiations.
We know how they will wield it. There is no need to gaze into the crystal ball. Just ask John Major or David Cameron what happens when the Conservative’s Eurosceptic wing feels the hand of history on its shoulder.
‘They’re just waiting to pounce,’ one Minister confirmed to me.
So there will be no leap into the dark. The issue is not in doubt. By her stubborn refusal to call an early Election – and secure the enhanced majority that would allow her to maintain control of the negotiations – Mrs May has sealed her fate.
And ours. On Wednesday we will jump, and we will fall. Kamikaze Brexit beckons. There is no prospect of a soft landing.