Theresa’s last stand

Remainers and Brexiteers are determined to sabotage the EU deal, so this could be . . .

IF YOU had been standing in the House of Commons lobby on the evening of July 22, 1993, you would have been treated to an unusual spectacle. A group of parliamentary researchers – some Labour, some Tory – suddenly punched the air and embraced one another.

I was one of them, and the occasion of this strange crossparty unity was John Major’s defeat on the Maastricht Bill.

New Labour pro-Europeans and hardcore Tory Eurosceptics put aside their differences to best a common foe.

I thought about that evening as I watched Theresa May deliver her historic speech on Article 50. She was measured and statesmanlike, but couldn’t quite rise to the occasion. ‘It never really got off the runway,’ one Minister admitted to me. ‘You could feel a sense of unease on our benches.’

Mrs May and her Ministers should feel uneasy. Once again, the line between friends and enemies is about to blur.

A new, unholy alliance is being constructed – and when the time is right, it will strike.

Until now, Brexiteers and Remainers have been at daggers drawn. While those weapons weren’t exactly sheathed last week, we did see the first signs of blades being lowered.

A few hours after Mrs May’s statement I was approached by a Tory Brexiteer. He was very exercised about ‘Henry VIII clauses’ being inserted into the Great Repeal Bill, allowing Ministers to amend legislation without consulting Parliament. ‘I didn’t just swap one dictatorship for another,’ he fumed. Soon afterwards a Tory Remainer told me: ‘Those Henry VIII clauses – I’m going to have to oppose them.’

The Prime Minister is unlikely to lose her head over Henry VIII. Enough Tory Eurosceptics will shelve their commitment to parliamentary sovereignty long enough for a bonfire of EU red tape. But the mutterings of discontent from both sides of the Tory divide represent the first straws in what’s set to become an increasingly violent wind.

Although they won’t admit it – to themselves, never mind anyone else – the two great warring tribes are now aligned in pursuit of the same objective. And that is ensuring Mrs May’s attempt to secure a deal with the EU is sabotaged.

To understand why, you need to read the Article 50 letter. Or rather, between the lines of it.

There has been outrage over the section on security co-operation, but Mrs May’s critics miss the point. Before Wednesday her public position had been ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’. The letter effectively said ‘ no deal means Europe will be laid waste by the butchers of Islamic State’.

Mrs May needs her deal desperately – which puts her on a collision course with the hardliners on her back benches.

On Friday the EU responded to the ‘Dear Donald’ letter. It rebuffed early talks on a trade deal. It set out a number of red lines. Britain will need to remain tied to Europe on business regulation and tax rates. A bill for ‘contingent liabilities’ – which some believe may be in the region of £60 billion – will have to be settled.

There is no way Brexiteers will sign up to such a settlement. To them it would be a leap from the EU frying pan into the EU fire. And if Mrs May tries to push such a deal through the Commons, they will savage her.

They will not be alone – the Labour Party is again at its self-righteous best. Last week Yvette Cooper raged: ‘Until now, I had assumed, or at least hoped, that security would be sorted separately.’

What she didn’t mention was linking security and trade is her party’s position. On Monday, Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer produced ‘six tests’ that must be met for Labour to back a deal. One test was, ‘ Does it deliver exactly the same benefits as we currently have as members of the single market?’ Another was, ‘Does it protect national security?’

For Starmer, security and trade are indivisible.

Of course, there’s no way these ‘tests’ will be met. If Mrs May tried to deliver a ‘Labour B rex it’ her party would implode. Which means she is encircled. The SNP and Lib Dems will oppose any deal on principle. Once Donald Tusk’s price for a divorce settlement is revealed, hardcore Tory Brexiteers will join them.

At which point Labour will slide in behind. Its MPs from Leave constituencies will walk through the No lobby branding the deal a betrayal, while colleagues from Remain constituencies will do the same claiming it sacrifices everything progressives hold dear.

In her statement, Mrs May said: ‘It is my fierce determination to get the right deal for every single person in this country.’ It’s a noble but unrealistic ambition. And by trying to deliver a Brexit for everyone, she will end up with a Brexit for no one.

Mrs May’s enemies are about to become friends. When they do – as with John Major – they will come for her.