May allies fear Ides of March
PM’s Praetorian Guard believe she may have to offer to quit in return for votes for her deal She faces second Commons defeat on Tuesday as EU only willing to give ‘small’ backstop concession
THERESA May’s future in Downing Street was last night hanging in the balance – as allies discussed openly whether she should resign to save her Brexit deal.
With just 19 days to go until Brexit, Mrs May is facing her second heavy Commons defeat on the deal when MPs vote on her plans on Tuesday – unless Brussels offers a dramatic last-minute concession on the hated ‘backstop’ to assuage the concerns of Brexiteers.
Cabinet Ministers, No 10 advisers and MPs increasingly believe that Mrs May will have to offer to resign as part of an ‘Ides of March’ blood deal with pro-Brexit MPs: they argue that the prospect of installing ‘one of their own’ in No 10 might be the only way to persuade the Brexiteers to accept her deal.
The ‘Ides of March’ – March 15 in the Roman Calendar – was the day Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44BC at a meeting of the Senate.
One ally of the Prime Minister said: ‘If she has to make that sacrifice in order to secure her legacy, then I think she would.’ Another powerful Downing Street figure added: ‘The only way she would countenance going voluntarily is if it could get her deal over the line.’
The leading candidates to succeed Mrs May –- Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, his predecessor Boris Johnson and Home Secretary Sajid Javid – are all ready to launch immediate leadership bids. Other potential candidates – including Environment Secretary Michael Gove and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss, who are on a joint trip to America this weekend – are ‘considering their options’.
Tense negotiations between the UK and the EU are expected to continue all weekend and until late tomorrow, with Ministers in London being updated on the progress by video-link.
Last night, a Downing Street source hinted that a dramatic breakthrough might still be possible by saying that RAF Northolt had put the PM’s plane on standby for a lastminute dash to Brussels.
The source said the Prime Minister was ‘intensely focused’ on making progress but ‘these are tough talks we are expecting to go right down to the wire’.
Nerves are still jangling in No 10 following the provocative offer on Friday by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier of limiting the backstop – staying aligned to EU rules – to Northern Ireland only.
No 10 reminded Mr Barnier, who is today planning to be in Dublin for the France-Ireland Six Nations rugby clash, that the idea was first rejected a year ago because it would divide the UK.
On Friday, talks between EU and UK officials continued into the night. Mrs May was briefed in the early hours of yesterday on the limited progress.
Government sources said the current expectation was that Brussels would unveil a ‘small concession’ on the backstop – but not, they feared, one which would be sufficient to win over all the rebels.
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, who is leading the efforts to alter the withdrawal agreement, tells today’s Mail on Sunday that he will ‘not put his name’ to any legal opinion which backs the EU’s proposals if there is any risk of us being indefinitely detained in the backstop.
‘My professional reputation is far more important to me than my reputation as a politician,’ Mr Cox says. The eminent QC reveals that he has been working on an arbitration mechanism which would ‘give us the unilateral right to trigger the process that would lead to our exit from the backstop’ and would dramatically alter the balance of power between UK and EU negotiators by putting ‘the onus on them to prove we can’t leave’.
Mr Cox adds: ‘ It’s the reason why some EU officials don’t like it – it works.’
Tory whips have warned that the Government could lose the vote by a margin of between 50 and 150 if Mr Cox is unable to change his legal advice – seen as key to winning over Brexit hardliners and the DUP. One senior Cabinet Minister told The Mail on Sunday that Mrs May ‘does not have a hope in hell’ of winning the vote on Tuesday, with the expectation that ‘all hell would break loose’ after that.
Defeat on Tuesday would trigger a day of parliamentary drama on Wednesday, with MPs voting on whether to veto ‘No Deal’ and extend Article 50 – and even the possibility of another no confidence vote in the Prime Minister from Labour.
Downing Street is divided about whether to order Ministers to vote in favour of No Deal – which would risk mass resignations – or put down a motion which only rules out leaving the EU without a deal in March, not at some other point later in the year.
In the wake of a defeat, Mrs May’s allies expect pro-Remain MPs, led by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, to seize control of the process to both delay Brexit and ‘soften’ it by keeping the UK in a customs union.
They have been urging Tory MPs to ‘save Brexit’ by voting for the deal for fear of much worse.
But last night, Tory Brexiteer leader Jacob Rees-Mogg – chairman of t he party’s European Research Group – denied that voting down the deal would hand control of the process to a Remain-dominated Commons. He told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Brexit can only be blocked if the Government wants to do it. That would be a breach of all its commitments.
‘If the Government holds steady, Parliament cannot stop Brexit.’
The approach of the crunch vote has led to tensions spilling over in Cabinet meetings.
Last week, Home Secretary Sajid Javid clashed with Philip Hammond over the Chancellor’s plans to bail out the economy if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
The Chancellor – who has been widely criticised within Government for failing to devote significant funds to No Deal planning – was rebuked by the Home Secretary for belatedly setting up a fund to