Buoyant Boris not over the line yet
THE Tories appear to be maintaining a strong lead over Labour – but they’re not over the line yet.
The party has succeeded in increasing its share of the vote thanks, in part, to the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down in a number of constituencies – and is now broadly at the same level of backing it achieved in 2017.
Labour has also managed to steadily improve support, but only by about the same amount as the Conservatives.
As a result, the gap between the two parties has been maintained. Beyond the headline voting intention figures, the underlying data has also consistently favoured the Conservatives since the campaign began.
Both parties had policies in their manifestos that really resonated with voters. But when asked who was better to deal with specific issues, the Tories won out again.
At no point during the campaign has the party been fewer than 15 points ahead of Labour on the question of who would be best for the economy. It has enjoyed similar leads on Brexit and has even been ahead on the issue of health – traditionally a key Labour strength.
In the entire history of British politics it has never been the case that a party has led on the economy and leader ratings and then not won the most seats at the Election. With only days to go, however, there is still time for Britons to be persuaded to change their mind.
A major mistake, misstep or gaffe could still bring about a movement in the polls.
Turnout will also be significant. Could younger voters, who are traditionally less likely to vote
but also largely favour Labour, be persuaded to turn out in greater numbers?
Will some Conservatives who feel uneasy about Mr Johnson’s Brexit plan decide to sit on their hands rather than take a walk to the polling station?
Last-minute tactical voting decisions in key seats could still have an impact.
Ultimately for Labour, preventing the Conservatives from achieving a majority may prove to be enough to form a government if it forms alliances with other parties.
The polls may favour the Conservatives, but none of the parties will be giving up yet.