TRADING PLACES
United face their worst nightmare, Liverpool are taking over as top earners... and could rule for years
IF YOU thought it was bad being a Manchester United fan, with Liverpool on course for a first league title in 30 years, it’s about to get worse.
Another unpalatable milestone is likely soon — Liverpool’s income could overtake United’s as early as this season, ending the latter’s 27year unbroken streak as English football’s biggest earning club.
In fact, all the signs are that Liverpool could dominate English football for the next decade… just like Sir Alex Ferguson’s side did after they won their first title in 26 years in 1993. For decades the dynasty built by Ferguson and David Gill seemed unassailable. Even given United’s decline after the departure of Sir Alex in 2013, they had so much metaphorical credit in the bank in terms of brand value they only needed moderate performances to stay ahead of the pack.
But consistent mediocrity eventually pays a price. In terms of earnings, United have always been No1. Not for much longer. If Liverpool don’t overtake them this season, it is close to inevitable that it will happen in 2020-21 if United don’t make the Champions League.
It is hard to overstate the significance of this power shift, on and off the pitch, between England’s two Goliath clubs. United have 20 topflight titles and Liverpool are heading towards a 19th. Arsenal have 13 and no other club is in double figures or has any realistic prospect of getting there soon.
It’s potentially a seismic moment, the equivalent of United outstripping Liverpool in the early 1990s.
In the 1980s Liverpool had been the undisputed No1 club in England and, before the Heysel disaster and s ubsequent ban, dominant in Europe, with their four European Cup wins between 1977 and 1984.
Ferguson famously said his greatest challenge had been ‘knocking Liverpool right off their f***ing perch.’ On the pitch that began in 1993, when United won the first Premier League. In financial terms, it was already happening by the late 1980s, when United began to outstrip Liverpool, largely because of a bigger capacity at Old Trafford in the days when gate money was king. But burgeoning merchandising — United were the first club to mass-market items beyond shirts — meant that by 1995 they had three times Liverpool’s income.
The significance is clear. United’s commercial success and Ferguson’s genius led to 20 years of dominance. It seems unlikely any one manager will match that longevity. Yet the parallels for Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp are mounting.
They have the platform to dominate financially. And they have a manager who may even match Ferguson in terms of charisma, leadership and eloquence. It’s a potent mix, as United fans know. Liverpool have laid the foundations to establish a dynasty akin to Ferguson’s. If that wasn’t bad enough for
United, the club most likely to challenge Liverpool for supremacy is Manchester City. Where that leaves United is a moot point.
The clue to this changing of the guard came this week in Deloitte’s Football Money League which gives t he f i rst si ght of Liverpool’s finances for 2018-19, allowing us to illustrate how they are now so close to United. Not since 1991-92 has
Liverpool’s income outstripped United’s. (See table for details).
Liverpool had revenues of £ 533million last season, against United’s £627.1m. But United are not in the Champions League this time and even their own forecasts show income will drop in 2019-20 to between £560m and £580m.
A Mail on Sunday forecast estimates Liverpool will earn £555m£590m, dependent on progress in the Champions League, the FA Cup and with new commercial deals.
Their Premier League TV money alone will rise from last season’s £152m to around £176m due to the new 2019-22 TV deal and modified distribution. The Super Cup and Club World Cup wins each earned £4m. Club sources point to a merchandise surge since winning the
Champions League, and a bigger portfolio of international partners.
Liverpool are guaranteed around £74m from this season’s Champions League, but that could rise to £83m for making the quarter-finals, £93m for the semis, £106m for the final and almost £110m for winning. An FA Cup run to the final can earn up to £6.8m in prize money, plus 45 per cent of gate receipts for each tie. If United perform only moderately in Europe for the rest of the season and Liverpool go deep into the cup competitions, their income will top United’s.
Next season will be more lucrative still as Liverpool’s new Nike kit deal kicks in. They are expected to earn upwards of £70m a year, against £45m from New Balance now. And the Champions League will be ever more lucrative with Liverpool probably domestic champions, and hence due more cash under UEFA rules.
In short, for Liverpool, a title win should only be the start of something special. For United, there is a long and painful road ahead.