Norwich doomed but rest of scrap will go to wire

WITH the Premier League due to resume behind closed doors this week, here’s what you can expect over the remaining 92 games of the season.

AN ALMIGHTY RELEGATION BATTLE

USING my unique advanced formula that takes into account team performances, expected goals, goalkeeper quality and more, I have simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times to calculate where teams are likely to finish and the points they are expected to earn (left).

Five of the bottom six — sorry Norwich — all have a greater than 30 per cent chance of survival but my calculations predict that Aston Villa and Bournemouth are most likely to be relegated. Norwich only have an eight per cent chance of survival. At the top end, United will fall short of Chelsea for the last Champions League place, though would still qualify if City’s ban is upheld.

A SLOWER GAME

WE might not get to see the usual Premier League intensity for a while. A ‘pressure’ is counted when a player applies pressure on an opponent receiving, releasing or carrying the ball. Since, the return of the Bundesliga, that figure has plummeted.

17%

Before the Bundesliga break, each team averaged 174 pressures per game. Since the return, that has fallen 145, a reduction of 17 per cent.

Players simply don’t have the same levels of fitness as they did previously, despite teams being able to use five substitutes. Tackles are also down by seven per cent.

Fans can expect levels of fitness more akin to a pre-season friendly when the Premier League returns.

REDUCED HOME ADVANTAGE?

IT HAS been the most striking change since the Bundesliga came back. As The Mail on Sunday recently revealed, since the Second World War home teams had won 46 per cent of the time in front of supporters, falling to 36 per cent with no

fans. That has been even lower in Germany since the restart.

22%

Home teams have won just 22 per cent of games (10/52) since the return of the Bundesliga compared with 43 per cent before the break. But, in the German second tier, home teams are winning at a similar rate as they were before, dropping only to 38 per cent (19/50) from 41 per cent. It will be interesting to see what happens here.

A NEW EUROPEAN STATUS QUO

SINCE Leicester won the title in the 2015-16 season, the same clubs have made up the Premier League’s top six: the ‘Big Six’ of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham. The Foxes are about to shake it up again. According to our calculations, Brendan Rodgers’ side have a 90 per cent chance of finishing in the Champions League places.

Sheffield United were odds on for relegation at the start of the season. Now, they have a 34 per cent chance of finishing in the top seven. If City’s ban is upheld by the Court of Arbitration for Sport, the Blades could be set for Europe, which would be a monumental achievement by Chris Wilder and his team.