Daily death toll bulletin suspended amid claims numbers are exaggerated

DAILY updates on coronavirus-related deaths have been suspended amid concerns that the way fatalities are recorded may have exaggerated the toll in England by more than 4,000.

Public Health England counts any death as Covid-related if the person had ever tested positive for the virus – even if they recovered from it months ago. This has raised concerns that some who plainly did not die of the illness – for example, if they were killed by a road traffic accident long after a positive test – are being mis-recorded as Covid-19 deaths.

On Friday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock ordered a review of the way PHE counts coronavirus deaths, which is different to the way they are recorded in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

And yesterday the Department of Health and Social Care stopped publishing daily updates of Covid-19 deaths – underlying how seriously Ministers are taking the matter. The gov.uk website said the numbers for Covid-19 ‘deaths in all settings’ were ‘not available’.

In a sign of growing tensions, PHE yesterday stuck to its guns and continued to publish the disputed daily deaths figure on its Covid-19 ‘dashboard’. However, PHE also tweeted an analysis which calculated that, if England brought its way of calculating Covid-19 related deaths into line with the devolved administrations, its toll would fall by 4,149 deaths – or almost ten per cent.

Amid the confusion:

● A Government advisor doubted Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s assertion that there could be a ‘significant return to normality’ by Christmas;

● Mr Johnson announced Ministers are to be given new powers to enforce local lockdowns, including ‘stay at home orders’;

● Ten ‘Nightingale courts’ – including one in Peterborough Cathedral – are being set up to help clear the legal backlog.

Last night, a Government source stressed Ministers, officials and the public had to have faith in death statistics if they were to be useful. The source said: ‘The most important thing with data is making sure it’s reliable. There’s no point putting figures out if you can’t trust them.’

The key difference between England’s Covid-19 deaths data and that of the devolved administrations is that, in England, there is no ‘cut-off date’ for Covid-19 deaths.

In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland if a person dies more than 28 days after a positive coronavi

CALLED FOR REVIEW: Health Secretary Matt Hancock, under pressure over ‘reliability’ of his updates rus test, they are not counted as a Covid-19 death. The assumption is they died of something else.

Professor Carl Heneghan of Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, who spotted the ‘statistical flaw’ in England’s counting method, said: ‘ By this PHE definition, no one with Covid i n England i s allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but has been successfully treated, will still be counted as a Covid death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.’

PHE’s Dr Susan Hopkins said it included post- 28 day deaths ‘ to ensure our data is as complete as possible’. Its analysis found ‘ of those who died after 28 days, Covid19 was stated as the main cause of death on the death registration form for 47 per cent’ of cases.

Mean whi l e P r o f e s s o r John Edmunds, a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), poured cold water on Mr Johnson’s ‘ sincere hope’ that life would get back to normal by Christmas. He said normality was ‘a long way off, unfortunately’, and people would be able to ditch social distancing only if a vaccine became available.

Mr Johnson signalled Ministers would get new powers to impose lockdown measures, saying ‘actions by local councils will not always be sufficient’. He said: ‘Where justified by evidence, Ministers will be able to close whole sectors or types of premises in an area, introduce local stay-at-home orders, prevent people entering or leaving defined areas, reduce maximum gathering size, or restrict transport systems serving local areas.’

Lord Chancellor Robert Buckland announced the ‘Nightingale Courts’, to hear civil, family and tribunal matters, which will free up formal court buildings for cases which require cells and secure docks. Middlesbrough Town Hall and the Ministry of Justice’s London headquarters are also to be used.