COVID QA & Why are we still facing restrictions if the R-number is falling?

Q Does the R-number tell us how bad things are getting?

A The R number tells us how many people each infected person passes the virus to, on average. Last week it was suggested the UK’s number had fallen from 1.7 to 1.1 – anything below 1 indicates that not enough people are being infected to sustain the Covid-19 pandemic.

But another measure is equally telling. A study also reported the prevalence rate, with one in every 200 people said to have the virus, which is higher than ever before.

While the R number reduction may indicate the ‘rule of six’ and other restrictions are working, scientists say the prevalence rate means that it is too early to be optimistic. Professor Kevin McConway, at The Open University, says the rise in infection prevalence is ‘very concerning’ and adds there is a lot of ‘statistical uncertainty’ about the R number.

Q We have a higher infection rate than Poland and Turkey, so why quarantine when we return from these countries?

A Last week the Government added Poland and Turkey to the list of countries deemed high-risk for Covid – and travellers must quarantine for 14 days when returning home.

But the aviation industry has criticised the decision, pointing out that both countries have a lower infection rate than the UK’s 65.3 cases per 100,000 people.

But Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said concerns were raised after the rate in Poland ‘nearly doubled’ in a week. Turkey’s figures are being considered ‘differently’ to other countries, with officials voicing suspicions about ‘under-reported’ cases.

Q I’m in a local lockdown. Can I meet people outside my household?

A In most local lockdown areas, you cannot meet anyone from outside your household – indoors, or outdoors. But soon a tier system is being introduced and restrictions will increase according to the infection rate.

As regions see cases rise, evertighter restrictions will be brought in, up to a tier-three full lockdown with all non-essential businesses closed. The new system does not yet have an official launch date.