COVID Q&A Will Covid cases surge again when schools have reopened?

Q Now pupils have gone back to school after their summer break, are we expecting another spike in Covid cases?

A With schools in England and Wales reopening, all eyes are now on the infection rate to see if it rises, as happened last year.

Experts have been scrutinising trends in Scotland, where most pupils went back in mid-August. And the evidence there suggests a surge may be inevitable. Cases in Scotland by the end of August hit a record 6,800 a day, which First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has conceded may be linked to the start of a new term. And Sage, the group of scientists advising the Government, has warned a similar rise in England is ‘highly likely’.

Dr Julian Tang, a virologist at Leicester University, says: ‘It’s likely we will see a surge in cases once schools reopen, as children are unvaccinated and schools are high-density environments with relatively poor ventilation and long periods of contact.’

On Friday, the UK’s vaccine advisory body, the JCVI, refused to endorse vaccinating healthy 12 to 15-year-olds, as children are at such low risk from Covid.

Some scientists are adamant that pupils returning to school don’t drive up case numbers, but simply reflect what’s going on in the community. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of

East Anglia, says: ‘There is debate about whether increased transmission in schools is to blame, or more social interaction between parents who no longer have to stay in to look after their children.’

All secondary pupils in England will take two lateral flow tests at school, three to five days apart. Those testing positive will have to isolate at home for ten days.

In the rest of the UK, pupils and staff are being encouraged to take home or community-based tests. Pupils testing positive must isolate at home for ten days and children named as close contacts will need to take a PCR swab test.

The difference this term is unless they test positive, pupils will not have to self-isolate – a policy designed to ensure whole classes no longer get sent home.

Social distancing rules have been relaxed and it’s up to head teachers whether they keep measures such as one-way systems. Face coverings are no longer routinely advised for staff or pupils in England and Wales, although are still recommended in crowded spaces such as school buses.