Far right will win big in EU elections, so what can halt its march to power? Its own divisions
Polls show a surge of discontent across Europe, but centrists are still likely to hold sway in parliament
Far-right gains in next month’s European elections will be hard, if not impossible, to parlay into more power in parliament, experts say, but they could boost nationalist parties in EU capitals – with potentially greater consequences.
Polling suggests far-right and hardline conservative parties could finish first in nine EU states, including Austria, France and the Netherlands, in the polls between 6 and 9 June, and second or third in another nine, including Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden.
The predicted rise of the farright Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the conservative nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) has sparked speculation about a “sharp right turn” in the European parliament, potentially jeopardising key EU projects such as the green deal.
ID, which includes Marine
Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ) and Vlaams Belang in Belgium, are on track to be the big winners – from 59 MEPs to perhaps 85.
The ECR, which includes Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, Spain’s Vox, the Finns party and the Sweden Democrats, is on course to return about 75 MEPs, a more modest advance.
Analysts say, however, that such far and hard-right gains, while sizeable, may make little immediate difference to the workings of the parliament.
First, said Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform thinktank, the parties that make up the current “grand coalition” of conservatives, socialists and liberals “are likely to lose a substantial number of seats, but maintain their overall majority”.
The mainstream centre-right European People’s party (EPP) group, which includes the German Christian Democrats (CDU) of the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is set to stay the largest in the 720-seat parliament, with about 175 MEPs, while the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats – parties such as Spain’s Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE) – is heading for second with up to 145 MEPs.
And though the liberal Renew group, including French president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance, may lose a dozen seats, possibly retaining as few as 80, that should still ensure that “on the big decisions, the centre holds”, said Nicolai von Ondarza of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Moreover, analysts say, ID and the ECR disagree on so much, and so bitterly, that it is difficult to see them working together. “I’m pretty sure we won’t see a broad-church far-right group in the European parliament,” von Ondarza said. “They’re too divided.”
The two groups may agree broadly on some issues such as migration and postponing or even rolling back green legislation, but they are deeply split on others, including, critically, their line on Russia and backing for Kyiv.
Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ECR members such as Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Poland’s PiS have proved staunchly pro-Nato and pro-Kyiv.
By contrast, many ID members – particularly AfD – remain more or less overtly pro-Russian.
There are also internal tensions, analysts note. Within ID, Le Pen in particular has voiced criticisms of AfD after members attended a secret meeting to discuss a plan for the mass removal of foreigners from Germany, including those with German passports.
The arrest last month of the parliamentary
‘The biggest impact of the elections will be to further weaken leaders such as Macron and Scholz’
Mujtaba Rahman, analyst