Begins in pembrokeshire
powerhouse Alan Dennison. Shy Tories like Delme Harries or Elwyn Morse would be more to their liking. Still, if Conservative Party members don’t stand as Conservatives, you must wonder why.
The choice among unaffiliated members would almost certainly be between current Cabinet members.
There are two Labour members, one Plaid member, and one Liberal Democrat. Besides David Simpson, the unaffiliated members are Michelle Bateman, Jon Harvey, Tessa Hodgson, and Neil Prior.
Of the unaffiliated members, the rumour mill is grinding away hardest regarding Pembroke St Mary’s North councillor Jon Harvey.
Cllr Harvey is an undemonstrative member of the Cabinet who once stood as a Conservative candidate. However, he has drifted away from that affiliation.
Many councillors favour Tessa Hodgson, even some on the Conservative benches. However, at the time of writing, she appears unlikely to run.
If she doesn’t, the good old boys’ club on the IPG benches, whose casual sexism she never fails to nail, will breathe a sigh of relief.
Preconditions for Conservative support form a stumbling block.
The Group spent much of the last year personally attacking David Simpson’s Deputy Leader, Paul Miller.
Regardless of how competent Cllr Miller is, in the eyes of the Conservative Group, he bears the unutterable stigma of being a member of the Labour Party.
The Conservatives would have to gamble on one of the four above being prepared to stab Paul Miller in the front after sitting in the Cabinet and voting in favour of his policies for the last seven years.
Regarding the IPG, Mr Miller bears the triple stigma of being Paul Miller, Labour Party membership, AND getting funding for projects the IPG never got airborne.
While the Conservative Group might want to attack, attack, attack, they risk making a mockery of their Westminster candidate.
The Conservatives hope to win the new Mid & South and Pembrokeshire. Stephen Crabb is a strong candidate whose presence on the ballot makes a victory more probable than might otherwise be the case.
Mr Crabb praised the UK Government’s
Shared Prosperity Fund for investing £27m in Pembrokeshire. He met with cabinet members and officers at least twice regarding Haverfordwest Riverside and the SPF bid.
It rewrites history for the Conservative Group to pretend Mr Crabb, who happily took part of the credit for Pembrokeshire County Council’s successful applications, did not know what the Council planned to do with the money.
Mr Crabb will stand in Mid and South Pembrokeshire, point to the investment, and say, “Look what Westminster has done for you”.
It beggars belief that his local party can continue calling it a waste of money or ( as some more deranged councillors have suggested) a Labour plot.
The Conservatives might counter that position by saying that in a General Election, local issues matter less. However, as the
Conservative strategy in Wales seeks to concentrate voters’ attention on Labour’s ( oh so many) failings in Cardiff Bay, they’d best hope that’s not the case.
One final wrinkle is the result of the St Ishmael’s by- election.
The IPG will already have tapped up candidates to find out who will decide that true independence means joining a political group.
Claire George, the Conservative candidate, is the only one of the five candidates who’s declared a political affiliation.
The worst result for the IPG and the Conservatives would be if a genuinely unaffiliated candidate succeeded the late Reg Owens. If that happened, if a new councillor joined the “dictionary independents”, both parties risk all their plotting and manoeuvering coming undone in very short order.