It is time to tread with caution

When the warning light on your car is flashing, it’s rarely the right time to veer off the motorway and do a spot of off-roading. When you are tired, it’s infrequently the correct point at which one should start reading “War and Peace”. When you are feeling dizzy, it’s not the time to go tightrope walking.

Yet, the new government campaign which is intended to get us ready for the Brexit transition period has a dizzying feel. We are still reeling from the effects of the coronavirus.

We don’t know if the economic recovery will be “V” shaped, indicating we will be much the same as before in a short amount of time, or “U” shaped, indicating a prolonged downturn, or if in- deed the recovery will resemble any letter, rather, it may be like a line that buckles, twists and turns like a doodle on a notepad.

Under these circumstances, why inflict greater uncertainty? Theoretically, yes, the deadline for applying to an extension to the transition passed on June 30th. However, given the chaos which reigns across the Continent, I doubt that it would be too difficult to get the European Commission to agree to grant more time.

There is a school of thought which may say, “Let’s just get on with it”. This might be apropos advice in certain circumstances, such as picking out lunch or choosing between paint colours, but not for determining the economic future of the entire country. I would no more say “just get on with it” under these circumstances than I would get out of an airplane at 30,000 feet without a parachute strapped to my back. Even then, I would want to make sure the parachute was of good quality before I took such a perilous step.

“Let’s just get on with it” is a dismissal of thought. It suggests that we don’t want to think, rather we want to act. There is, admittedly, a time when thinking can get in the way of acting: however, this is not one of these occasions. It’s time to look before we leap.

We have just been through a profound economic shock inflicted by the coronavirus. We don’t yet fully know the consequences of the pandemic. Our habits may have changed, and the economy with it: we may find that the stores, restaurants, and clubs are far less crowded than they used to be on a long-term basis. We may find the Amazon delivery van far more ubiquitous. This may be temporary until such time as a vaccine is found. However, the pandemic and its effects may mean that we become more wary in general. Florida just registered over 15,000 cases in one day: will the images of suffering and death from abroad influence our behaviour at home, even as the virus recedes? Only a fool could speak of this with absolute certainty.

I am an accountant. Uncertainty is my main bugbear. I am reliant on a clientele whose prospects are uncertain; therefore, my prospects are uncertain. Are we sure that this is the time to go veering off in a new direction without a clear map? Saying “just get on with it” will not preserve a single job, calm a single investor’s nerves, not make anything any easier for businesses which are already overloaded with doubt and worry.

There is nothing wrong with stating that we are living in uncertain times and we should slow down, be cautious, particularly given what we do not know. To proceed into the wild beyond at full speed seems like the height of foolishness. I know this approach may not be popular with everyone and people want to ‘Get Brexit Done’. All I ask is that we tread with caution.