Compromise looks unlikely

Michael Keating,

Since Scotland voted to stay in the EuropeanUnion and England and Wales to come out, the question of a second independence referendum, allowing Scotland to stay in the EU, has been back on the agenda.

The SNP can claim a mandate because their manifesto for the 2016 election stated that, while a second referendum was not planned, that could change if there were a change of circumstances such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will.

The draft referendum bill published by the Scottish Government proposes a rerun of the 2014 referendum, with the same question and the same procedure. Yet matters are not at all straightforward.

A 2014-type of referendumwouldrequire the permission of Westminster, as the consultation paper concedes.

If this is not forthcoming, the Scottish Government would have to find away of making it legal, perhaps using a form of words indicating that it was merely sounding out public opinion.

Independence would allow Scotland to remain in the EU, but with Scotland inside and the UK outside the European single market, there would be an economic border running from Gretna to Berwick.

This is a very different proposition from 2014 whenboth countries would have been in the single market, allowing free movement of goods, services and people.

This is why the SNP continues to search for a compromise, someway of keeping the whole of the UK in as much of the single market as possible.

The space for compromise, however, is shrinking as the UK Government moves towards a hard Brexit, out of the EU altogether.