SNP raises political pressure

As predicted, Nicola Sturgeon secured a majority – thanks to six Green list MSPs – to enable the Scottish Parliament to demand that Theresa May sanctions a second independence referendum.

It was hardly thunderous support ringing through Holyrood, with the Greens handing the SNP an advantage of under 10%, but the sound of bitter discord instead.

Make no mistake – Ms Sturgeon is right to emphasise that this was a clear democratic mandate to take the next stage of the referendum battle to Mrs May’s doorstep. The fact that the prime minister’s door is not just shut to the idea, but triple-locked as well, is neither here nor there. It’s the symbolism of this historic gesture and raising of the political pressure which counts.

Ms Sturgeon has said repeatedly that she is simply following a manifesto pledge on which she was elected last year. The first minister has previously referred to the “will of the people” deciding when the time was right, but the second half of the same sentence in her manifesto cited Brexit as a valid alternative reason to call another referendum. In other words, it was not dependent on public opinion which, as we know, is bitterly divided and has the “Nos” edging it continuously in polls.

Opposition parties accuse the SNP and Greens of blatant political opportunism at a time when most people in Scotland do not want another referendum. Ms Sturgeon claims Brexit has changed things.

Does Ms Sturgeon now click her heels for Mrs May to decide when the time is right? Hardly. Thefirst minister intends to outline her next move, after Mrs May rejects the request as expected, after Easter.

It is probably a reasonable strategy to keep her powder dry as Brexit mania takes overfrom today.

Many are sceptical over the spring 2019 deadline being met, even although Ms Sturgeon has been trying to hold Mrs May to that.

What will be particularly fascinating is how Scotland fares in the Brexit negotiations, and what impact that has on referendum voting intentions. What the SNP will be battling to avoid is any serious delay leading to Scotland being out of the EU, but still inside the UK, and being forced to fight another Scottish election in 2021 – before a referendum.

“The prime minister’s door is not just shut to the idea, but triple-locked as well”