Hard to pull the trigger on new vote

Nicola Sturgeon has done the easy bit by loading a gun in readiness for another independence referendum vote, but pulling the trigger might prove harder.

It is all in the timing, but when might that be? Surely, with hardly much change in independence voting intentions, despite the upheaval of Brexit, and total confusion about the terms of our divorce from the EU, a risky new indy vote is hardly around the corner.

Biding her time for public shifts of opinion on independence as EU talks unfold, seems more likely – especially if “hard Brexit” is painted as Armageddon for Scotland.

One of the most fascinating concepts of the separatist argument is that an “overwhelming” Remain vote equals a desire for independence, even although this is not actually mirrored by the polls. Ruth Davidson repeated that she voted Remain, but that “was not a proxy for independence”.

SNP strategists will be conscious of that potential huge contradiction among Remain backers in Scotland, along with the one million voters who backed Leave and the fact that around a third of the country did not even take part in the EU vote.

Ms Sturgeon has seized on a fortuitous opportunity provided by Brexit to try to reverse the shattering defeatof2014, evenalthough her critics remind her that it was meant to be a one off where everyone agreed to abide by the result.

SNP membership rocketed in defeat, but it has produced little change in referendum voting intentions, which presumably means that they were already committed to the cause. Nevertheless, their enthusiasm and determination are potent weapons.

Making continued EU membership sit comfortably with independence was a huge challenge in 2014, providing a few memorable banana skins, and even some within the SNP still see it as a hard-sell. Opponents claim that the UK is easily Scotland’s most important “single market”.

Ahuge chunk of people in Scotland will view this as a golden second chance to escape the UK. Many others might argue they voted to stay in the UK in 2014 for better or worse.

“Biding her time as talks unfold seems more likely – especially if “hard Brexit” is painted as Armageddon”