>> Guscott: Saracens can build a dynasty
Every new season brings renewed excitement, and with it changes in the pecking order in terms of who qualifies for Europe, who makes the Premiership final, and who is relegated. This season is bigger than ever before, especially on the back of a great unbeaten England tour of Australia and Team GB winning Sevens silver at the Olympics.
It means that the season starts on a high with the Twickenham Double Header, and also with ambitious underachievers like Bath and Northampton playing each other in the opening round.
Can Bristol stay up? Can Sale continue to defy my expectations of them finishing in the lower half table? Can Exeter kick on, or will Saracens maintain their supremacy? Whichever way you view it there is a lot to look forward to.
There have also been a number of big overseas signings which are a great boost to the Premiership and its status, with Willie le Roux, Kurtley Beale, Matt Toomua, JP Pietersen, Louis Picamoles, Taulupe Faletau, Greg Holmes, Schalk Burger and Dave Dennis all joining English clubs. Attracting that quality of player is a sign of how commercially prosperous some of the Premiership clubs have become – now all they have to do is balance the books.
However, with big names come big expectations. If every overseas player played like Charles Piutau did for Wasps last season then they would be worth their weight in gold, but obviously there are also some disappointments. Overall, while foreign signings knock some England- qualified players out of the reckoning at Premiership clubs, I am not as against them as I once was.
As long as they offer quality, and are not imported in huge quantities, then they give team-mates and fans a lift.
The arrival of the France No.8 Picamoles at Northampton is one of the most significant because of the amount of money there is in the Top 14, and the fact that with the increase in broadcast revenue in the Premiership, English clubs are able to compete in the transfer market.
It is inevitable also that in a professional sport there will be an even bigger focus on coaches and what they are getting out of their players, and the Premiership is no exception.The pressure is on from the opening round because by the time the first five or six games have been played we are into the ‘fighting relegation’ syndrome.
We’ve seen a great example, with Saracens, of how a long-term plan can work out, with Mark McCall taking over from Brendan Venter and building impressively on the base he inherited.
From the outside you hear about what an encouraging environment there has been over a number of years at Saracens, with an inclusive culture that preceded them winning any trophies.
You believe it because the evidence is there in the performances that the Saracens players put in. As well as winning a European and domestic double they lost only four games last season, despite having internationals missing left, right and centre, and it is a tribute to their club culture that they remained successful.
When you looked at Saracens in the past, with big-name signings like François Pienaar, Tim Horan and Thomas Castaignede, they were big spenders who had a small return for their money. Then Venter came in and brought in more due diligence by signing players who he knew would do a job for the club.
Just as important, Saracens kept their focus despite being a nomadic club with different grounds and training grounds, and they brought players through their academy system like Owen Farrell, Jamie George and Maro Itoje.
They have managed and developed talent incredibly well, and although many team have tried to emulate it, as soon as they get there they lose it – with Northampton, Harlequins and Bath cases in point.
For instance, after playing some tremendous rugby and winning the league, Quins got lost somewhere along the way, with a lack of talent and investment in certain positions seeing them slip.
A big part of establishing a successful environment and culture is in coaches being able to see the person they are recruiting, as well as the player.
Doing that in Rugby Union brings much more than the ‘marginal gains’ Dave Brailsford
talks about it an Olympic context. If you are continually finding the right person to fit the bill as Saracens have, it brings significant gains – and seems as if Exeter and Wasps are also or the right path. Saracens being European champions gives the Premiership huge kudos, and it also makes the league even more com petitive. There is little doubt that if the 2017 Lions squad to New Zealand was selected now there would be many more English players in it than those from Wales, Scotland and Ireland in the Po12 Saracens will be confident, because once you’ve backed it up in terms of vin ning titles and trophies, you know you can do it, and you realise you have the edge over you opponents suspect th like the Bat team I played for – Saracens ha developed the same compelling force, or vibe, that you are better than anyone else. Serial winners get labelled as arr gant, but I call it self-belief.We had at
“We’ve seen a great example, with Saracens, of how a long-term plan can work out with Mark McCall building on Brendan Venter’s base”
Bath, the great Leicester and Wasps teams after us had it, and now Saracens have it – which is why they won’t feel uncomfortable being favourites.
It won’t be easy because I expect Exeter,Wasps, Leicester and Northampton to know that if they are going to beat Saracens they will have to build packs that are forces of nature.
If you look at the Saracens backline it doesn’t terrify you in terms of speed or size and make you think,“oh-oh we are in trouble today”, but you know the problem will be that you will eventually run out of numbers in defence because, due to the power of their pack, you will not see the ball. So, any realistic challengers to Saracens have to have a pack that can produce the goods week-in week-out.
At the other end of the spectrum Bristol will be vulnerable simply because they haven’t been in the Premiership for seven seasons. It is essential that they win one of their early home games, because belief is contagious – and without it they will struggle.
As for surprises, Sale spring one on me season after season by batting above their place in the order. Finishing sixth last season was a great achievement, and it is testament to Steve Diamond’s hard work and know-how.
Another surprise would be if Gloucester finished in the top four, because they are a side that prove that just because you make international signings doesn’t guarantee you success. My expectation of Bath is mid-table, but looking at their squad it should be higher. The problem in the backline is that while the back three of Semesa Rokoduguni, Matt Banahan and Anthony Watson is strong, with the exception of Jonathan Joseph, they are light in midfield.
One of the reasons the Premiership is so competitive is because when clubs play each other only twice in the regular season logic can go out of the window – and teams that are more talented on paper are often ambushed when they have to travel.
Last season Saracens were the exception, and they could well be embarking on a run of the sort that Wasps, Leicester and Bath managed before them. However, there will be 11 sides preparing to stop them in their tracks.
“Bristol will be vulnerable because they haven’t been in the Premiership for seven seasons. They must win an early home game”