No Ryan, so it’s Worcester for the big drop this time
Five more sleeps until the Aviva Premiership starts all over again – like fans across the land, I can’t wait. This is the time when hopes are high and the slate has been wiped clean. Whatever our expectations, what realistically are the prospects for each of the Premiership sides?
Let’s start at the top, and it would take a brave person to bet against Saracens doing just as well in the coming season as they did last time. These things go in cycles, and this is Sarries’ time: a strong squad that is superbly coached, and a style of play that still looks to be progressive. When you look at their ins and outs, it’s hard to come up with any conclusion other than that they’re at least as strong as before – the likes of Jacques Burger and Charlie Hodgson have retired, and a few others have moved on, but Schalk Burger and Sean Maitland are both exciting arrivals. Barring a run of truly rotten luck, Sarries should be top again – they had a sixpoint gap between them and their nearest rivals last season.
Exeter continued their inexorable rise towards the top of the English game, finishing second last time around, and their recruitment has followed their usual pattern – no megastars, just the usual shrewdness from Rob Baxter. I’ve got Exeter wrong in the past, and I’ve learned my lesson – while I can’t see them finishing ahead of Sarries, they have to be serious contenders for the top four.
Wasps finished third last season, and even with the salary cap at a record level, they seem sure to be the target of the nudge nudge, wink wink brigade, who will be asking how they could afford to recruit in the way that they have done. Kurtley Beale, Danny Cipriani, Nick de Luca, Kyle Eastmond, Willie Le Roux, and a bunch of others have come in, and while the likes of Charles Piatau and the great George Smith have gone, surely they have to be even stronger than last season. The only worry their fans will be whether Dai Young can quickly assimilate the new stars into the Wasps team, but my betting is that he will. Top four for them again.
Leicester look to have had a comprehensive clear-out. As a result, it’s hard to get a proper handle on their prospects – yes, there are a few new names who have arrived, the Academy talent coming through will be as good as ever, and the influence of Aaron Mauger seems sure to continue to have a positive influence. You can’t ever leave the Tigers out of harder than usual to weigh them up.
Saints and Sale filled fifth and sixth places last season, happy to be at the top European table, but down about missing out on the play-offs – the disappointment emanating from Franklin’s Gardens was palpable. Despite the arrival of Louis Picamoles, I fancy Sale, with their new owners in place and their ambitious plans, to do the better of the two, despite the loss of Cipriani.
The clubs that filled the bottom half of last season’s table are arguably the most interesting ones. Quins, Gloucester and Bath will be embarrassed by ending up in the Challenge Cup, and their fans will have much higher expectations than most. Quins were undoubtedly damaged by the early announcement of Conor O’Shea’s departure, and their signings don’t scream that rapid improvement is immifor nent. Gloucester had a desperate run of games in the second half of the season that took them from top-six contenders, maybe even top four, and dumped them into eighth. David Humphreys says that he knows why they had their ‘blue’ period, although he has kept the details to himself. They’ve gone for strengthening their pack, and if their new backs coach can release the unfulfilled promise of their talented back line, they could be the season’s surprise package.
Then there’s Bath: so much talent, but they showed it only sporadically last season, and it cost Mike Ford his job. Luke Charteris and Taulupe Faletau have come in, but their most significant signing is their new DoR, Todd Blackadder – his surname is a headline writer’s dream! They have the squad, and a fantastic set-up, but will there be every fans’ nightmare, a season of ‘transition’!
No matter how good the promoted team is, their first season in the top-flight is about survival, and I reckon Bristol will manage it. Newcastle look to have recruited wisely and should be all right, which leaves Worcester.
With Dean Ryan having gone, I think they’re going to be in trouble.Their squad looks weaker than last season so – on the assumption we’ll still have relegation – they are my favourites for the drop.