Decision on Sexton may hold key for Irish
BRENDAN GALLAGHER sets the scene for Ireland’s must-win match against France next weekend
Round three is usually the tipping point in most Six Nations and that will certainly be the case in Dublin on Saturday when both Ireland and France enter the fray with a 1-1 record. Whoever wins will still be live Championship contenders with all to play for but the losers will instantly be reduced to scrapping for so-called mid-table respectability.
Given that Irish pints are usually half full it’s still possible to make a very strong case for Ireland winning the Championship. They have claimed bonus points in both their games to date – England missed out on BPs in both their wins – amassed a cricket score in Rome to boost their points difference and, crucially, their last game will be England at home.
To a certain extent Ireland’s fate is still in their own hands but clearly they need to take care of business against France and Wales first, no easy task. Historically in the modern day Six Nations, France are the only team Ireland have not got an overall winning record against having won six of their 17 encounters.
Some very good Ireland teams indeed have misfired against the French, for whatever reason.
Recent Six Nations form would suggest a close encounter. In the last five Championship fixtures there have been two draws, a one-point France win in Paris and a two-point Ireland win at Stade de France. Only in 2015 in Dublin was there any breathing space between the two sides and even then Ireland’s 18-11 win was extremely hard fought with France in overtly physical mood with Jonny Sexton, as he often is, the main target.
Ireland’s thumping win over Italy will certainly have calmed nerves after what amounts to a false start against Scotland at Murrayfield but it’s difficult to judge the true quality of any individual performances. Ireland appeared in fine fettle and played at an impressively relentless tempo but Italy were miserably poor and for much of the game offered only token resistance.
So Joe Schmidt has to compute all that while the probably return to fitness – and therefore availability – of Sexton and Peter O’Mahony will make for some finely-judged selection calls. There is also the matter of Rob Kearney’s bicep injury which has proved to be more serious than first thought, so much so that he could miss the rest of the tournament.
The options at full-back are straight forward. Schmidt can either bring in bright young talent Tiernan O’Halloran, who has been exciting Connacht fans for a couple of years, or he can switch the ever-versatile Simon Zebo from the wing and bring in Craig Gilroy who helped himself to a second half hat-trick when coming on for Zebo in Rome.
Zebo has been on fire on the wing for Munster and Ireland and it could be Schmidt decides to leave him there and relies on the inexperienced, but specialist, O’Halloran.
Paddy Jackson has done little wrong – and a huge amount right – during Sexton’s increasing number of injury absences over the last 12-18 months and that call could be closer than some think now that Sexton has recovered from the calf muscle problem that has thus far confined him to the stands. Jackson is in the groove while Sexton could take time to settle and the last thing Ireland need is a disjointed start a la Murrayfield.
And, finally, there is the back row and the much-touted return of Peter O’Mahony. Or perhaps not. The back row of CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip has been going well and the inclination might be to leave well alone.
Stander was good, although not outstanding, against Scotland but was simply irresistible against Italy when he became only the third forward in the Championship’s long history to score a hat-trick. The others incidentally both came against England, Jehoida Hodges scoring three against the English at Swansea in 1903 and then the great French flanker Michel Crauste who helped himself to a hattrick in France’s 13-0 win at the Stade Colombes in 1962.
The South African-reared Stander is being hotly-tipped for a Lions tour place and, perhaps, even a Test start and it’s hard to disagree with that assessment. Heaslip, meanwhile, was also much-improved against Italy when he also deputised as captain for flu victim Rory Best.
While possibly the most heartening sight to Irish eyes has been the return to fitness of O’Brien who seems back to full beast mode.
You break that trio up at your peril yet O’Mahony is a special player himself, thought of as indispensable before big injuries started to take their toll. Ireland badly missed the Munsterman in last year’s Six Nations and not just for his all-round rugby nous and warrior spirit.
O’Mahony’s underestimated lineout work at the back gives Ireland muchneeded options. He’s not the tallest but is light, athletic and sure-handed and has won a huge amount of ball for both Ireland and Munster in the past. None of the other three mentioned have any serious lineout aspirations. Again it’s a close call and a bench place for O’Mahony is most likely at this stage. France will arrive in Dublin in credit. It’s been a decent, if unspectacular, start with the good outweighing the mediocre. They should probably have won at Twickenham when among other things Guy Noves got his replacements strategy wrong and were good value for their home win over a much-improved Scotland. The plusses are the signs that Baptiste Serin and Camille Lopez are settling down as a Test halfback combination worthy of the name and the dynamic form of La Rochelle flanker Kevin Gourdon, left, who has added much-needed pace to the France back row. The French pack generally have also gone well, especially, at scrum time, and although Les Bleus haven’t yet produced any real fireworks it feels like something good is just around the corner. A win at the Aviva would convince even the most sceptical of supporters.