Back row dominance will be key for Leinster
CLERMONT and Leinster have served up some mighty European action over the years and with the weather set fair in Lyon this afternoon’s clash should be no different. That is one prediction you can safely make, as for the result of the match you might as well resort to a coin toss.
Outwardly, Leinster arrive in France in splendid nick, top of the PRO12, unbeaten in 2017 and with an outstanding quarterfinal win over a dangerous Wasps team under their belt when their forwards comprehensively dismantled the highly-touted English opposition.
The wind is in their sails, they are the tournament’s leading points scorers and have yet to lose a scrum in this season’s competition. And on a day when every little bit of motivation will count there are one or two individuals who will be smarting a little from their exclusion from the Lions squad, notably Garry Ringrose and Devin Toner. But injuries are beginning to bite a little even for such a strong squad.
The absence of Sean O’Brien with an untimely hamstring strain alongside that of Jamie Heaslip, the Kearney brothers, Jordi Murphy and Cian Healy – albeit the latter has been operating mainly off the bench this season – is far from ideal.
Leinster’s first choice front five remains, including their two new Lions at prop – Tadh Furlong and Jack McGrath – but it is doubtful if Leinster will enjoy quite the degree of forward dominance and territory today as was the case against Wasps and there will be a big onus on their back row to find a way of dominating the breakdown.
If Leinster are going to prevail they might have to quarry this one out which is probably where former England coach Stuart Lancaster comes into play. He has got Leinster very well organised defensively and added real discipline to their game and they won’t flourish today without large dollops of both.
Very few club teams in the world could enter the fray without O’Brien, Heaslip and Murphy without feeling the pinch and some of Leinster’s lesser lights will need to shine brightly, just as MoM Joey Carbery did so spectacularly at full-back against Wasps earlier this month.
Dan Leavy is a huge talent in the back row and his contribution in tandem with Rhys Ruddock and Jack Conan could be crucial. All three are outstanding if underrated operators in their own right, now they have the stage to show their worth.
Clermont, of course, have yet to win the tournament although a fifth semi-final in six years suggests they remain as determined as ever. And hasn’t the seemingly ageless Aurélien Rougerie signed yet another one year contract extension. You rather fancy the former France centre intends to keep playing until Clermont safely land the trophy.
In recent months, it’s been another seemingly ex France star, Morgan Parra, who has been pulling the strings more than anybody and when Parra is at his best – and he can become distracted and frenetic occasionally – Clermont usually find a better balance to their game.
Johnny Sexton is well aware of the Clermont threat and that of French clubs generally.
“We have lost to a lot of French teams over the last few years,” he said. “We lost to Toulon last year and in the semi-finals the year before that. And even this season we lost in Montpellier and drew in Castres. Clermont have really targeted Europe, they’ve been to a couple of finals, and they really want to win it sooner rather than later.”
Sexton is usually the go-to man for most sides he plays in but with Leinster, and especially in Europe, skipper Isa Nacewa, a three time winner of the tournament, is often as influential.
As the fly-half explains: “As a captain he very much leads by example and I think that whenever he decides to call it quits he will probably be remembered as the greatest player ever to play for Leinster.
“There aren’t many foreign players who would
have been able to come in and have the kind of impact he has had on and off the pitch. He has been a dream to work with and play with over the past number of years and we will miss him badly when he goes.”
Clermont can still hit the turbo and do the fast, exhilarating stuff but against Toulon in the quarter-finals they were very measured and almost seemed to deliberately avoid any pyrotechnics lest they awaken the slumbering beasts from the Mediterranean coast.
A long term Achilles injury has also deprived them of Wesley Fofana and seen Rougerie and the equally powerful Remi Lamerat paired at centre which has tightened up their game plan a tad although with dashers such as Nick Abendanon and David Strettle they still pose a massive threat out wide.
A fascinating duel awaits and, at 22/1, a draw after 80 minutes seems the only value bet on offer. It’s too close to call.