Lions have the talent, do they have the time?
It was always going to be a very competitive 2017 Lions squad, and I like the look of the 41 players Warren Gatland have selected. I had a gut feeling after how well the home unions teams did in the autumn, and from the quality of the Six Nations, that this would be a strong side – and that is why there is such a great sense of anticipation.
Throughout recent columns I’ve said that there is no one team dominating a World XV – and that includes New Zealand. For instance, there would even be an argument about whether Brodie Retallick would make the starting line-up at lock, whereas in the past All Blacks like Dan Carter and Richie McCaw would have been straight in.
This is not the strongest of New Zealand sides, despite their results. In terms of scary players who can rip you apart the 2005 All Blacks had a lot more of them than this side.
This Lions squad includes 16 players who were victorious in the series against Australia in 2013, so they know what it takes. They will understand the importance of having a good vibe off the pitch. In my experience of Lions tours if you can keep a good buzz going off the field, with a 95 per- cent harmonious squad that enjoys each others company and looks forward to every game, then you will play well.
It is also important that players feel that they have a competitive chance of playing in one of the three Test matches, and most of them should feel that they have that opportunity on this tour.
For example, the odds-on favourites at fly-half are Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell, so Dan Biggar will have to play the best rugby of his career to break out of midweek duty – however, he will still fancy his chances.
Elsewhere, there are few near certainties. CJ Stander must have a head start in winning that No.6 jersey based on form over the past year, and the same goes with Conor Murray at scrum-half, and tour captain Sam Warburton at openside. You can probably add Billy Vunipola to that list at No.8, but even so the England powerhouse faces a huge contest for the shirt with Taulupe Faletau.
As always there has been plenty of debate over those left out, and who were surprise choices. Jared Payne was a selection that not many saw coming, but although the Irish-Kiwi centre is unlikely to start in the Tests you get the sense that he is capable of doing so.
Garry Ringrose might have gone, Duncan Taylor, Alex Dunbar, and Jamie Roberts, too, but you have to ask if they are all better than Payne. Not in my view, and he has greater versatility than them in also being able to play fullback and wing.
The Scottish contingent of two is very small, but most people predicted that it would be. Of the close calls the case for Scotland’s Jonny Gray is no stronger than for England’s Joe Launchbury, who also missed out, and the same is also true of a comparison between two other absentees, Hamish Watson and James Haskell.
There was always going to be a bit of reaction to the squad, but head coach Gatland has said it has nothing to do with nationality, and instead is simply about who the coaches think are the best players to beat the All Blacks.
“The Lions squad contains 16 players who were victorious in 2013 so they now what it takes”
These days every team is looking for those 23-man line-ups where the eight guys on the bench are just as good as those in the starting side, and that applies as much to the Lions as it does to New Zealand.
I hope that the All Blacks are playing for their franchises against the Lions, because as a player that’s what I would want. Even so, the Lions will not need reminding that sometimes understudies are often even keener than the internationals they are standing in for.
In terms of demands on the Lions players, those involved in the Test matches will probably play five/six whole games. While that is difficult, it is not impossible, and good players will just relish that challenge.
If this series is not highly competitive I will be shocked. I am hugely excited by it, and cannot wait because the Lions invoke special feelings in British and Irish rugby fans.
The danger for New Zealand is that they could be in a tight battle, and they do not kick their goals where the Lions do. The Lions goal-kickers’ percentages speak for themselves, whereas New Zealand fly-half Beauden Barrett does not have the same success rate.
There is also always a chance that a Lions Test side does not come together, and that New Zealand play with such high intensity and low error count that they are irresistible. But I cannot really see that.
New Zealand are very comfortable playing without the ball, and they like organised chaos from loose kicks and turnovers – they thrive on it. They also keep on turning up new talents, but so do the Lions. We should have a great contest at inside-centre between Robbie Henshaw and Sonny Bill Williams.
Ben Te’o also fits Gatland’s picture of a big, abrasive centre, and if someone can latch into Te’o’s offloading game he could be the Lions answer to Sonny Bill.
On talent this series is no foregone conclusion for New Zealand – but every bookmaker in the world has them as substantial favourites to win. This is mainly because of how well they came together after the World Cup to replace so many outstanding players, losing only one Test since that Twickenham final.
Barrett has a sensational amount of talent, and was quite rightly named World Rugby’s 2016 player of the year. Barrett has not quiet reached his peak – and I hope he doesn’t do a Carter in 2005 and discover it on the Lions tour.
Given space or time, Barrett is unforgiving in taking advantage, and even though he is not a world class goal-kicker it doesn’t seem to affect him. I’ve also seen him wiped out recently, and all he does is get up and dust himself off before scoring another try.
This New Zealand side is beatable if the Lions pack can edge it in all areas, especially as the All Blacks concentrate on slowing the ball down when they are near their own line, taking the legality of the game to its limits.
New Zealand are very good at giving away penalties five metres from their own line rather than tries, but in this series I think the referees will be much stricter because there is statistical evidence of it. However, they are also a side that adapts rather than becoming serial offenders – they are usually too smart for that.
Against that, the All Blacks could be frustrated into trying to force chaos against a Lions side that is too disciplined to fall into the trap of giving the ball away cheaply. As for New Zealand’s discipline, Ireland should have won in Dublin as well as Chicago – and if the All Blacks high-tackle during this series like they did in Dublin they will be left with 13 players on the pitch.
New Zealand are up against serious quality, while the Lions are, as always, up against time.