Guscott: Who can stop Sarries and Chiefs?
JEREMY GUSCOTT’S VERDICT
THE Premiership has waves of wonderful rugby – but there is not enough of it over the course of the season. Some of that is down to the weather and the pitch conditions, but it is also down the quality of player skill sets and their ability to adapt.
There is also the influence of relegation, and at the bottom end of the table that pressure is significant.
This inaugural Gallagher Premiership season will start with the usual excitement in September with the sun out, firm pitches and great expectations from the fans – but in January and February it is a different beast. That’s when you get the real nittygritty and everyone desperate to win at home, because every coach in the competition knows that if you win 80 per cent of your home games it’s almost certain you will stay up.
There is always plenty of debate over the quality of the various leagues in Europe, and it is not long ago that there were four Premiership teams in the quarter-finals of the European Cup, whereas last season there was only one – Saracens – and they did not make the last four.
That’s not surprising given the way that the Irish provinces like European champions Leinster target the European Cup as their main priority, with key players like Jonny Sexton being rested in the PRO14 so they can peak at the right time. That’s because Irish players are centrally contracted by the IRFU, whereas it is totally different in the Premiership, where his Saracens counterpart, Owen Farrell, has his main contract with his club.
In France they do differently again in the Top 14, where they have huge squads, with different home and away teams, and a huge emphasis on winning their home matches.
Even though the Saracens side that won a European Cup and Premiership double in 2016 was as powerful as any to have created a dynasty in Europe – like Leinster now, and Toulon and Toulouse before that – the English game is not conducive to winning the European Cup back-to-back. That is because there are too many demands with English players being pulled in too many directions.
There’s no doubt that recently the PRO14 has had the bragging rights over the Premiership when, for instance, it comes to the number of players selected for Lions tours. However, when it comes to fan appeal, TV revenue, ground atmosphere, close contests, and the number of stars playing in it, the Premiership is the bigger attraction.
It is also more vibrant than the PRO14, because below Saracens and Exeter it is incredibly competitive among the sides from three to 12 in the table. The Premiership’s biggest problem is that it’s two-speed, because at the moment Saracens and Exeter have pulled clear of the rest.
Wasps and Leicester are at the top of the chasing pack, but both face the same challenge when it comes to keeping up. How much better would Wasps or Leicester be if their backs had the Saracens or Exeter pack in front of them? That’s why they have to ask whether it is their coaching, or the salary cap – or both – which is holding them back.
The level of expectation on Leicester from the biggest support base in the country means you can never count them out. However, they are not the Leicester of old, and nor are clubs like Wasps and Bath as competitive as they once were.
The other side of the coin is that you have an almighty scrap for top six places, and the higher profile and gates that European Cup rugby brings.
One of those likely to be scrapping most successfully are Newcastle, who had their best season under Dean Richards with a fourth place finish, and I expect them to remain in the top six this season.
Richards has found a formula which is working. As a player he read the game incredibly well, and he has carried that into his coaching career. He has a good understanding of players, and people in general, as he proved early on at Leicester when he went from being a legendary player to hugely successful coach almost overnight.
At the moment Richards has the advantage of not losing too many Newcastle players to international calls, but he has also created a no-blame team culture. Newcastle’s a place I love going to, but rugby-wise he’s turned Kingston Park into a mini fortress, and these days there are not many teams who look forward to visiting it. When it comes to someone who understands rugby clubs in terms of getting the right culture, work ethic and recruitment, you can’t do much better than Richards – and I believe he would be effective at almost any club he went to. There are other clubs sounding the battle cry, with Harlequins promising to raise their game and Gloucester lifted by the arrival of Danny Cipriani and a handful of South African signings – including Springbok lock Franco Mostert, who was impressive
“The Prem is more vibrant than the PRO14 because below Saracens and Exeter it is incredibly competitive”
in the recent series against England.
There’s also optimism at Northampton following the arrival of Dan Biggar, and great hopes at newly promoted Bristol, where they have a pedigree coach in Pat Lam. We will get an early idea of the intensity and appeal of the Premiership – and how prepared Bristol are – when they play Bath at Ashton Gate next weekend.
Bath were always a mid-table finish for me last season, even if it did take a late charge to get there. I cannot see it being any different this time, with no big acquisitions and a side overall that were too inconsistent and mediocre to challenge for the title – and it is hard to see that changing.
Bath are a very frustrating side at the moment, and although injuries were a big factor last season there are other equally significant issues. What is true is that if you do not have an interchangeable front five as back-up to your starting front five you will not finish in the top four. The same is true if you keep on changing your 910 combination constantly.
There are not many front fives where the names all spring out at you, because they are the unseen grafters who attend to the set piece. They work at the coalface, and they take pride in a job well done, and accept that unless they are Maro Itoje or Jamie George – or wear a ribbon in their hair or play in red boots – they are not going to get noticed. Front five forwards have never been the big-name superstars of the game, but if you get a technically excellent, powerful unit they are the basis on which everything is built – and Saracens and Exeter have that to a degree that others do not. They also have depth, and you only have to look at forwards like Nick Isiekwe and Jonny Hill coming through at those clubs to realise the importance they give it. When they reached the Premiership final in 2015, Bath also had similar front five depth, where you could not tell the difference between those who started the game and those who finished it. They no longer have that. Among the players I’m looking forward to seeing again this season are Joe Simmonds and Alex Lozowski. When Exeter brought in Simmonds at fly-half last season they hardly missed a beat. What I like about him is that he has no airs and graces and did everything efficiently and with skill. He is an 8/10 player most days, and 7/10 even on a bad day.
Lozowski’s got good pace and was great in defence for Saracens, going in very hard for someone his size. He is one of those players who raises his game depending on the company, and I’m sure that if you put him in the All Blacks backline he would fly.
There are class acts all around. I still consider Elliot Daly to be the most exciting English player in the league, and of the overseas stars two Springboks stand out.
Faf de Klerk had a fantastic season with Sale, and the scrum-half has taken his club form into the international arena. The same is true of Willie Le Roux, who fell back in love with the game after rubbing shoulders with Kurtley Beale at Wasps. Bath also have an inspirational force in Taulupe Faletau, who is one of the great modern players.
This is still a great game to be involved in, and my view is that – barring injuries – any player lucky to have the Premiership as their stage should come into work with a smile on their face.